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Oil market developments and the global economy from a general equilibrium perspective

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  • Gbadebo Oladosu

Abstract

Oil remains the top resource for meeting global energy requirements, and is one of the most widely traded commodities. With different levels of petroleum production, exports and consumption, developments in the oil market have far-reaching and varied consequences across regions. Policymakers and analyst alike are interested in understanding the sources of price movements, and its implications for the economy. This paper evaluates the regional economic impacts of oil markets changes across the globe. Simulations are performed with the energy policy in general equilibrium (EPGE) model, a 19-region and 49-sector global dynamic economic model with a 2004 base year. The simulations evaluate a number of scenarios that include changes oil demand and supply, as well as other sources of shocks to the oil price. Results highlight economic impacts in terms of changes in the gross domestic product, sectoral outputs and prices, employment and other indicators of economic performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Gbadebo Oladosu, 2015. "Oil market developments and the global economy from a general equilibrium perspective," EcoMod2015 8405, EcoMod.
  • Handle: RePEc:ekd:008007:8405
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 133-154, October.
    2. AydIn, Levent & Acar, Mustafa, 2011. "Economic impact of oil price shocks on the Turkish economy in the coming decades: A dynamic CGE analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1722-1731, March.
    3. Benjamin Hunt & Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton, 2002. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Oil Prices," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 179(1), pages 87-103, January.
    4. Peersman, Gert & Van Robays, Ine, 2012. "Cross-country differences in the effects of oil shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1532-1547.
    5. Selim Elekdag & René Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo Pesenti, 2008. "Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 297-311, June.
    6. Timilsina, Govinda R., 2015. "Oil prices and the global economy: A general equilibrium analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 669-675.
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    Keywords

    Global; Energy and environmental policy; General equilibrium modeling;

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