IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Non-Linearities and Unit Roots in G7 Macroeconomic Variables

  • Aksoy Yunus

    ()

    (Birkbeck College, University of London)

  • Leon-Ledesma Miguel A.

    ()

    (University of Kent)

We carry out a meta-analysis on the frequency of unit-roots in macroeconomic time series with a dataset covering 249 variables for the G7 countries. We use linear tests and the three popular non-linear tests (TAR, ESTAR and Markov Switching). In general, the evidence in favour of the random walk hypothesis is weaker than in previous studies. This evidence against unit roots is stronger for real and nominal asset prices. Our results show that rejection of the null of a unit root in the macro dataset is substantially higher for non-linear than linear models. Finally, the results from a Monte Carlo experiment show that rejection frequencies are very close to the nominal size of the test when the DGP is a linear unit root process. This leads us to reject the hypothesis that overfitting deterministic components explains the higher rejection frequencies of nonlinear tests.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bejm.2008.8.1/bejm.2008.8.1.1508/bejm.2008.8.1.1508.xml?format=INT
Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 8 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 1-44

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:8:y:2008:i:1:n:5
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.degruyter.com

Order Information: Web: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bejm

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
  2. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
  3. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios & Merih Uctum, 2003. "An Investigation of Current Account Solvency in Latin America Using Non Linear Stationarity Tests," Working Papers 485, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  4. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
  5. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Unit Root Tests are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-063, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  6. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam, 2004. "Unemployment, Hysteresis And Transition," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(3), pages 377-401, 08.
  7. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2006. "The yen real exchange rate may be stationary after all: evidence from non-linear unit root tests," Bank of England working papers 311, Bank of England.
  8. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  9. Vogelsang, T.J. & Perron, P., 1994. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," Cahiers de recherche 9422, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  10. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Zacharias Psaradakis, 2001. "Markov level shifts and the unit-root hypothesis," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 4.
  12. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  13. Philip Arestis & Andrea Cipollini & Bassam Fattouh, 2003. "Threshold Effects in the US Budget Deficit," CEIS Research Paper 18, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
  14. Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot & Jeremy M. Piger, 2001. "Markov regime switching and unit root tests," Working Papers 2001-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  15. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2003. "Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 104-21, January.
  16. Psaradakis, Zacharias, 2002. "On the asymptotic behaviour of unit-root tests in the presence of a Markov trend," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 101-109, March.
  17. Kilian, Lutz & Ohanian, Lee E., 2002. "Unit Roots, Trend Breaks, And Transitory Dynamics: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(05), pages 614-632, November.
  18. Kuo, Shew-Huei & Enders, Walter, 2004. "The term structure of Japanese interest rates:: The equilibrium spread with asymmetric dynamics," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 84-98, March.
  19. Pedro Gouveia & Paulo Rodrigues, 2004. "Threshold Cointegration and the PPP Hypothesis," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 115-127.
  20. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
  21. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
  22. Henry, Olan T. & Shields, Kalvinder, 2004. "Is there a unit root in inflation?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 481-500, September.
  23. Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1999. "Detecting Periodically Collapsing Bubbles: A Markov-Switching Unit Root Test," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 143-54, March-Apr.
  24. Hasan, Mohammad S., 2004. "Univariate time series behaviour of the real exchange rate: evidence from colonial India," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 75-80, July.
  25. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  26. n/a, 2001. "Balance of payments prospects in EMU," NIESR Discussion Papers 164, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  27. Rehim Kilic, 2004. "Linearity tests and stationarity," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 55-62, 06.
  28. Mark W. Watson & James H. Stock, 2004. "Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 405-430.
  29. repec:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:5:p:614-32 is not listed on IDEAS
  30. Chortareas Georgios E & Kapetanios George & Uctum Merih, 2004. "An Investigation of Current Account Solvency in Latin America Using Non Linear Nonstationarity Tests," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, March.
  31. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:8:y:2008:i:1:n:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.