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Causality between credit depth and economic growth: evidence from 24 OECD countries

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  • Mikhail Stolbov

    () (Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO-University))

Abstract

Abstract Causality between the ratio of domestic private credit to GDP and growth in real GDP per capita is investigated in a country-by-country time-series framework for 24 OECD economies over the period 1980–2013. The proposed threefold methodology to test for causal linkages integrates (1) lag-augmented VAR Granger causality tests, (2) Breitung–Candelon causality tests in the frequency domain, and (3) testing for causal inference based on a fully modified OLS (FMOLS) approach. For 12 of 24 countries in the sample, the three tests yield uniform results in terms of causality presence (absence) and direction. Causality running from credit depth to economic growth is found for the UK, Australia, Switzerland, and Greece. The findings lend no support to the view that financial development shifts from a supply-leading to demand-following pattern as economic development proceeds. The aggregate results mesh well with the current discussion on “too much finance” and disintermediation effects. However, idiosyncratic country determinants also appear significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikhail Stolbov, 2017. "Causality between credit depth and economic growth: evidence from 24 OECD countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 493-524, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1142-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1142-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Giorgio Fagiolo & Daniele Giachini & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Innovation, Finance, and Economic Growth: An Agent-Based Approach," LEM Papers Series 2017/30, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2018. "Industry rates of return in Korea and alternative theories of competition: equalising convergence versus tendential equalisation," MPRA Paper 88390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1142-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Giorgio Fagiolo & Daniele Giachini & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Innovation, Finance, and Economic Growth : an agent-based model," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1fai9i49vu8, Sciences Po.
    5. Mikhail Stolbov, 2017. "Causality between credit depth and economic growth: evidence from 24 OECD countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 493-524, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Causality; Economic growth; Financial development; FMOLS; Frequency domain;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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