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Oil price-inflation pass-through in Romania during the inflation targeting regime

Author

Listed:
  • Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu

    (UPT - Universității Politehnica Timișoara [România] = Polytechnic University of Timişoara [Romania] = Université polytechnique de Timișoara [Roumanie])

  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari

    (IFHE University)

  • Cornel Oros

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [UMR7322] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CRIEF [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche sur l'intégration économique et financière [EA 2249] - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers)

Abstract

In the wake of the inflation-targeting strategy in Romania, we estimate the impact of international oil prices upon the consumer price index (CPI) and core inflation. The inflation target was systematically missed by the monetary authorities who explain this failure by exogenous factors. Using a frequency domain framework, we show that the oil price–inflation pass-through can be observed only for those components of inflation which include volatile prices and only in the medium run. Our results put forward that the constant missing of the target cannot be explained by the oil price–inflation pass-through and the credibility of the strategy is put into question.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Cornel Oros, 2017. "Oil price-inflation pass-through in Romania during the inflation targeting regime," Post-Print hal-01434319, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01434319
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1221041
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    Cited by:

    1. Jakšić Saša, 2022. "Modelling Determinants of Inflation in CESEE Countries: Global Vector Autoregressive Approach," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 22(2), pages 137-169, June.
    2. Szyszko, Magdalena & Kliber, Agata, 2025. "The asymmetric impact of fuel and oil prices on inflation and inflation expectations in emerging economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    3. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Garcia, Pedro Mendes, 2023. "Effects of oil shocks and central bank credibility on price diffusion," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 304-317.
    4. Radu Șimandan & Cristian Păun, 2021. "The Costs and Trade-Offs of Green Central Banking: A Framework for Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-25, August.
    5. Ju, Yiyi & Fujikawa, Kiyoshi, 2019. "Modeling the cost transmission mechanism of the emission trading scheme in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 172-182.
    6. Sun, Qingru & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Guo, Sui & Wang, Ze & Liu, Siyao & Wen, Shaobo, 2019. "Effects of crude oil shocks on the PPI system based on variance decomposition network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    7. Chien, FengSheng & Chau, Ka Yin & Sadiq, Muhammad & Hsu, Ching-Chi, 2022. "The impact of economic and non-economic determinants on the natural resources commodity prices volatility in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

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