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The asymmetric impact of fuel and oil prices on inflation and inflation expectations in emerging economies

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  • Szyszko, Magdalena
  • Kliber, Agata

Abstract

This article determines the asymmetric impact of oil and fuel prices and the pressure in supply chains on inflation and consumer inflation expectations in Czechia, Hungary and Poland. The research period covers COVID-19 and the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (2017–2022). We compare the V-3 countries, which are heavily dependent on Russian oil. We estimate the nonlinear ARDL model and multithreshold ARDL to verify whether long-run relationships exist between oil prices (fuel prices or the pressure in global supply chains) and inflation or expectations. We find asymmetric reactions. However, no comparable pattern exists across the sample countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Szyszko, Magdalena & Kliber, Agata, 2025. "The asymmetric impact of fuel and oil prices on inflation and inflation expectations in emerging economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:147:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325003433
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108519
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectations; Inflation; Oil prices; Fuel prices; Supply chain pressure; Asymmetric effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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