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Understanding Consumer Inflation Expectations during the COVID‐19 Pandemic

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  • Gunda‐Alexandra Detmers
  • Sui‐Jade Ho
  • Özer Karagedikli

Abstract

We study how individuals' formation of inflation expectations are affected by the stringent containment and economic support measures put in place during the COVID‐19 pandemic. Using the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and the Oxford COVID‐19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), we find that policies aimed at containing the pandemic lead to an increase in individuals' inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty. We also find some heterogeneity in the impact across different demographic groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunda‐Alexandra Detmers & Sui‐Jade Ho & Özer Karagedikli, 2022. "Understanding Consumer Inflation Expectations during the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(1), pages 141-154, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:55:y:2022:i:1:p:141-154
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12460
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Balcaen, Pieter & Buts, Caroline & Bois, Cind Du & Tkacheva, Olesya, 2023. "The effect of disinformation about COVID-19 on consumer confidence: Insights from a survey experiment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2. Daria Minina & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2024. "The effect of information on consumer inflation expectations," Working Papers 810, DNB.
    3. Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2022. "Introduction," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(3), pages 373-374, September.
    4. Katharina Allinger & Fabio Rumler, 2025. "Inflation Expectations in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe: The Role of Sentiment and Experiences," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 67(2), pages 426-451, June.
    5. Katharina Allinger & Fabio Rumler, 2023. "Inflation Expectations in CESEE: The Role of Sentiment and Experiences (Katharina Allinger, Fabio Rumler)," Working Papers 247, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    6. CSORBA Luiela Magdalena & JURAVLE Damaris Judita, 2022. "Study Regarding The Impact Of The Covid-19 Pandemic On Inflation In Romania In The 2019 - 2020 Period," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 74(1), pages 51-64, August.
    7. Binder, Carola Conces & Campbell, Jeffrey R. & Ryngaert, Jane M., 2024. "Consumer inflation expectations: Daily dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    8. Szyszko, Magdalena & Kliber, Agata, 2025. "The asymmetric impact of fuel and oil prices on inflation and inflation expectations in emerging economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    9. Mihai Ioan Mutascu & Scott W. Hegerty, 2024. "Expected inflation and interest-rate dynamics in the COVID era: evidence from the time–frequency domain," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 559-582, May.

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