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Household Inflation Expectations in France: Lessons from a New Survey and the COVID-19 Crisis
[Les anticipations d’inflation des ménages en France : leçons d’une nouvelle enquête et de la crise du Covid‑19]

Author

Listed:
  • Erwan Gautier

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Jérémi Montornès

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

Abstract

This article documents several stylised facts about household inflation expectations in France based on data from a new survey by the European Central Bank, the Consumer Expectation Survey, conducted online among thousands of households between 2020 and 2021. The results are compared with those from the INSEE CAMME survey (a monthly consumer confidence survey), which has been carried out for many years. The conclusions drawn from the results obtained through these two surveys converge: the level of inflation anticipated by households is higher than actual or forecasted inflation. During the period 2020-2021, inflation expectations were positively correlated not only with current inflation, but also with the expected level of unemployment. During the COVID-19 crisis, only the first lockdown had a positive effect on expectations. However, the methodology of the two surveys differs, leading to discrepancies in the extent of the bias on current inflation, the dispersion of expected inflation or the intensity of correlations with actual inflation or with unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Erwan Gautier & Jérémi Montornès, 2022. "Household Inflation Expectations in France: Lessons from a New Survey and the COVID-19 Crisis [Les anticipations d’inflation des ménages en France : leçons d’une nouvelle enquête et de la crise du ," Post-Print hal-05204340, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05204340
    DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2022.534.2076
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://insee.hal.science/hal-05204340v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reiche, Lovisa & Meyler, Aidan, 2022. "Making sense of consumer inflation expectations: the role of uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2642, European Central Bank.
    2. Altig, Dave & Baker, Scott & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Davis, Steven J. & Leather, Julia & Meyer, Brent & Mihaylov, Emil & Mizen, Paul & Parker, Nicholas &, 2020. "Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. Rüdiger Bachmann & Tim O. Berg & Eric R. Sims, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, February.
    4. Frédérique Savignac & Erwan Gautier & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2024. "Firms’ Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(6), pages 2748-2781.
    5. Ricardo Reis, 2021. "Losing the Inflation Anchors," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 307-379.
    6. Andrade, Philippe & Gautier, Erwan & Mengus, Eric, 2023. "What matters in households’ inflation expectations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 50-68.
    7. Candia, Bernardo & Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2024. "The inflation expectations of U.S. firms: Evidence from a new survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    8. Castelletti-Font Barbara, & Gautier Erwan, & Ulgazi Youssef, & Vertier Paul., 2021. "Inflation in France during the lockdowns [L’inflation en France durant les confinements]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 234.
    9. Armantier, Olivier & Koşar, Gizem & Pomerantz, Rachel & Skandalis, Daphné & Smith, Kyle & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2021. "How economic crises affect inflation beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 443-469.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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