IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jmoncb/v57y2025i4p683-716.html

The Macroeconomic Expectations of U.S. Managers

Author

Listed:
  • ETHAN M.L. McCLURE
  • VITALIIA YAREMKO
  • OLIVIER COIBION
  • YURIY GORODNICHENKO

Abstract

Using responses obtained through the Nielsen Homescan panel survey, we explore the differences between managers’ and nonmanagers’ expectations and perceptions of inflation and unemployment. By and large, managers and nonmanagers exhibit similar average inflation and unemployment expectations as well as similar levels of disagreement and sensitivity to information provided in a randomized control trial. Responses to hypothetical questions suggest that inflation expectations of managers frequently affect their economic decisions. Finally, the inflation expectations of managers deviate systematically from the predictions of “anchored” expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • ETHAN M.L. McCLURE & VITALIIA YAREMKO & OLIVIER COIBION & YURIY GORODNICHENKO, 2025. "The Macroeconomic Expectations of U.S. Managers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(4), pages 683-716, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:57:y:2025:i:4:p:683-716
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13163
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13163
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jmcb.13163?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
    2. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    3. Andrade, Philippe & Coibion, Olivier & Gautier, Erwan & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2022. "No firm is an island? How industry conditions shape firms’ expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 40-56.
    4. Kamdar, Rupal & Ray, Walker, 2024. "Attention-Driven Sentiment and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 18984, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Candia, Bernardo & Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2024. "The inflation expectations of U.S. firms: Evidence from a new survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    6. Marianne Bertrand & Antoinette Schoar, 2003. "Managing with Style: The Effect of Managers on Firm Policies," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1169-1208.
    7. Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
    8. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
    9. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    10. Link, Sebastian & Peichl, Andreas & Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2023. "Information frictions among firms and households," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 99-115.
    11. Frédérique Savignac & Erwan Gautier & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2024. "Firms’ Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(6), pages 2748-2781.
    12. Carola Binder & Tucker S. Mcelroy & Xuguang S. Sheng, 2022. "The Term Structure of Uncertainty: New Evidence from Survey Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(1), pages 39-71, February.
    13. Andrade, Philippe & Gautier, Erwan & Mengus, Eric, 2023. "What matters in households’ inflation expectations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 50-68.
    14. Binder, Carola C., 2017. "Measuring uncertainty based on rounding: New method and application to inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-12.
    15. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(6), pages 1537-1584.
    16. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Juan Ospina & Michael Weber, 2021. "Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(5), pages 1615-1639.
    17. Jonung, Lars, 1981. "Perceived and Expected Rates of Inflation in Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 961-968, December.
    18. Gary Gorton & Ping He, 2023. "Optimal monetary policy in a collateralized economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 75(1), pages 55-89, January.
    19. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tiziano Ropele, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 165-219.
    20. Laura Giuliano & David I. Levine & Jonathan Leonard, 2011. "Racial Bias in the Manager-Employee Relationship: An Analysis of Quits, Dismissals, and Promotions at a Large Retail Firm," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 46(1), pages 26-52.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ivan Yotzov & Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Gregory Thwaites, 2024. "The speed of firm response to inflation," Bank of England working papers 1085, Bank of England.
    3. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202424 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff & Meyer, Justus, 2023. "Recent changes in consumers’ medium-term inflation expectations – a detailed look," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 104.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
    2. Francesco D'Acunto & Janet Gao & Lu Liu & Kai Lu & Zhengwei Wang & Jun Yang, 2025. "Subjective Expectations and Financial Intermediation," CESifo Working Paper Series 11780, CESifo.
    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2025. "Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 33858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Candia, Bernardo & Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2024. "The inflation expectations of U.S. firms: Evidence from a new survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    5. Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza, 2024. "Business Cycles when Consumers Learn by Shopping," Working Papers 2024-12, Banco de México.
    6. Caruso-Bloeck, Martin & Mello, Miguel & Ponce, Jorge, 2023. "News of disinflation and firms’ expectations: New causal evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202424 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2023. "Energy prices and inflation expectations: Evidence from households and firms," Discussion Papers 28/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Link, Sebastian & Peichl, Andreas & Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2023. "Information frictions among firms and households," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 99-115.
    10. Jain, Monica & Kostyshyna, Olena & Zhang, Xu, 2024. "How do people view wage and price inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    11. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2022. "Information frictions across various types of inflation expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    12. Okan Akarsu & Emrehan Aktug & Huzeyfe Torun, 2025. "Inflation Expectations and Firms' Decisions in High Inflation: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial," Working Papers 2512, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    13. Dovern, Jonas & Müller, Lena Sophia & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2023. "Local information and firm expectations about aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1-13.
    14. Natalie Burr, 2025. "Do inflation expectations respond to monetary policy? An empirical analysis for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 1109, Bank of England.
    15. Dräger, Lena & Gründler, Klaus & Potrafke, Niklas, 2025. "Political shocks and inflation expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    16. Martha Elena Delgado & Juan Herreño & Marc Hofstetter & Mathieu Pedemonte, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations," Working Papers 24-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    17. Dräger, Lena & Gründler, Klaus & Potrafke, Niklas, 2025. "Peer Effects in Macroeconomic Expectations," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-739, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    18. Ina Hajdini & Edward S. Knotek & John Leer & Mathieu Pedemonte & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle, 2022. "Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation," Working Papers 22-21R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 27 Mar 2023.
    19. Hensel, Jannik & Mangiante, Giacomo & Moretti, Luca, 2024. "Carbon pricing and inflation expectations: Evidence from France," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    20. Petre Caraiani & Nazli Karamollaoglu & Cihan Yalcin, 2025. "Financial Conditions, Uncertainty and Expectations Errors of Firms," Working Papers 2515, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    21. Chua, Chew Lian & Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2024. "The influence of supermarket prices on consumer inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 414-433.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:57:y:2025:i:4:p:683-716. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.