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Consumer Inflation Expectations: Daily Dynamics

Author

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  • Conces Binder, Carola
  • Campbell, Jeffrey
  • Ryngaert, Jane

Abstract

We use high frequency identification methods to study the response of consumer inflation expectations to many different types of events. We use data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. We identify the response of expectations to a large set of shocks, including FOMC announcements, macroeconomic data releases, and news related to the Covid-19 pandemic. The majority of FOMC meetings have no detectable effects on consumer inflation expectations, though certain especially salient announcements have short-lived effects. Good news about the pandemic tends to reduce inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Conces Binder, Carola & Campbell, Jeffrey & Ryngaert, Jane, 2022. "Consumer Inflation Expectations: Daily Dynamics," MPRA Paper 117628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:117628
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    14. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    15. Binder, Carola Conces & Kamdar, Rupal & Ryngaert, Jane M., 2024. "Partisan expectations and COVID-era inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(S).
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    Cited by:

    1. Carola Conces Binder & Rupal Kamdar & Jane M. Ryngaert, 2024. "Partisan Expectations and COVID-Era Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation in the COVID Era and Beyond, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Andrew B. Martinez, 2025. "How do Macroeconomic Expectations React to Extreme Weather Shocks?," Working Papers 2025-001, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    3. Adewale Rafiu Aregbeshola & Ibrahim Ayoade Adekunle, 2025. "Episode of Foreign Direct Investment Reversal—The Role of Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 1-25, December.
    4. Di Pace, Federico & Mangiante, Giacomo & Masolo, Riccardo M., 2025. "Do firm expectations respond to monetary policy announcements?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    5. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2025. "Asymmetric inflation target credibility," CFS Working Paper Series 731, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    6. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2025. "Asymmetric inflation target credibility," Discussion Papers 2025/1, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    7. Fiorella De Fiore & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Albert Pierres Tejada, 2024. "Fiscal stimulus plans and households' expectations," BIS Working Papers 1238, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2025. "Asymmetric inflation target credibility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    9. Winnie Coleman & Dieter Nautz, 2025. "Asymmetric Inflation Target Credibility," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0060, Berlin School of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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