IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdm/wpaper/2025-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

California Gasoline Demand Elasticity Estimated Using Refinery Outages

Author

Listed:
  • Armando R. Colina
  • Bulat Gafarov
  • Jens Hilscher

Abstract

This research paper presents new gasoline demand price elasticity estimates for California. The study leverages the unique characteristics of California's gasoline market and introduces a new set of proposed instruments. As a first step, the study takes advantage of California's partially isolated gasoline market, which is separated from much of the U.S. by environmental regulations. The estimating equation controls for persistent demand shocks, leading to a lower bound for the long-run elasticity of demand of -0.23. In the second step, a new set of instruments is employed to address supply and demand simultaneity, using detailed information on refinery outages to capture short-run supply shocks. The results show that the long-run demand elasticity is -0.60.

Suggested Citation

  • Armando R. Colina & Bulat Gafarov & Jens Hilscher, 2025. "California Gasoline Demand Elasticity Estimated Using Refinery Outages," Working Papers 2025-04, Banco de México.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2025-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.banxico.org.mx/publications-and-press/banco-de-mexico-working-papers/%7B217674A4-C97F-BD7F-8A3D-D83B495B2153%7D.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laurence Levin & Matthew S. Lewis & Frank A. Wolak, 2017. "High Frequency Evidence on the Demand for Gasoline," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 314-347, August.
    2. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2024. "Heterogeneity in the pass-through from oil to gasoline prices: A new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    3. Steven T. Berry & Giovanni Compiani, 2021. "Empirical Models of Industry Dynamics with Endogenous Market Structure," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 309-334, August.
    4. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    5. Peter Davis, 2006. "Spatial competition in retail markets: movie theaters," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 37(4), pages 964-982, December.
    6. Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Daniel Sperling, 2008. "Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 113-134.
    7. Shanjun Li & Joshua Linn & Erich Muehlegger, 2014. "Gasoline Taxes and Consumer Behavior," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 302-342, November.
    8. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    9. Justine S. Hastings, 2004. "Vertical Relationships and Competition in Retail Gasoline Markets: Empirical Evidence from Contract Changes in Southern California," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 317-328, March.
    10. Leamer, Edward E., 1985. "Vector autoregressions for causal inference?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 255-304, January.
    11. Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Daniel Sperling, 2008. "Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," The Energy Journal, , vol. 29(1), pages 113-134, January.
    12. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    13. Yeh, Sonia & Sperling, Daniel, 2010. "Low carbon fuel standards: Implementation scenarios and challenges," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6955-6965, November.
    14. Stephen P. Holland & Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel, 2009. "Greenhouse Gas Reductions under Low Carbon Fuel Standards?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 106-146, February.
    15. Ramsey, J B & Rasche, R & Allen, Bruce T, 1975. "An Analysis of the Private and Commercial Demand for Gasoline," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(4), pages 502-507, November.
    16. Peter Davis, 2006. "Spatial competition in retail markets: movie theaters," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(4), pages 964-982, December.
    17. Knittel, Christopher R. & Tanaka, Shinsuke, 2021. "Fuel economy and the price of gasoline: Evidence from fueling-level micro data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    18. Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 1187-1214, November.
    19. H. S. Houthakker & Philip K. Verleger & Dennis P. Sheehan, 1974. "Dynamic Demand Analyses for Gasoline and Residential Electricity," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(2), pages 412-418.
    20. Liu, Weiwei, 2014. "Modeling gasoline demand in the United States: A flexible semiparametric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 244-253.
    21. Severin Borenstein & A. Colin Cameron & Richard Gilbert, 1997. "Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 305-339.
    22. Amit Gandhi & Aviv Nevo, 2021. "Empirical Models of Demand and Supply in Differentiated Products Industries," NBER Working Papers 29257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2024. "Heterogeneity in the pass-through from oil to gasoline prices: A new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    2. Bonnet, Odran & Fize, Étienne & Loisel, Tristan & Wilner, Lionel, 2025. "Compensating against fuel price inflation: Price subsidies or transfers?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. M. Adam & O. Bonnet & E. Fize & T. Loisel & M. Rault & L. Wilner, 2023. "How does fuel demand respond to price changes? Quasi-experimental evidence based on high-frequency data," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers 2023-17, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    4. Mamkhezri, Jamal & Khezri, Mohsen, 2024. "Vehicle miles traveled induced demand, rebound effect, and price and income elasticities: A US spatial econometric analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 224-240.
    5. Shanjun Li & Joshua Linn & Erich Muehlegger, 2014. "Gasoline Taxes and Consumer Behavior," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 302-342, November.
    6. Mohammad Vesal & Amir Hossein Tavakoli & Mohammad H. Rahmati, 2022. "What do one hundred million transactions tell us about demand elasticity of gasoline?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2693-2711, June.
    7. Pier Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp, 2023. "De-Fueling Externalities: How Tax Salience and Fuel Substitution Mediate Climate and Health Benefits," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Pier Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp & Piero Basaglia, 2023. "De-Fueling Externalities: Causal Effects of Fuel Taxation and Mediating Mechanisms for Reducing Climate and Pollution Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 10508, CESifo.
    9. Ahundjanov, Behzod B. & Noel, Michael D., 2021. "What’s in a name? The incidence of gasoline excise taxes versus gasoline carbon levies," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    10. Belloc, Ignacio & Gimenez-Nadal, José Ignacio & Molina, José Alberto, 2024. "The gasoline price and the commuting behavior of US commuters: Exploring changes to green travel mode choices," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    11. Lucas W. Davis, Shaun Mcrae, and Enrique Seira Bejarano, 2019. "An Economic Perspective on Mexico's Nascent Deregulation of Retail Petroleum Markets," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    12. Rik L. Rozendaal & Herman R. J. Vollebergh & Rik Rozendaal, 2021. "Policy-Induced Innovation in Clean Technologies: Evidence from the Car Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 9422, CESifo.
    13. Goetzke, Frank & Vance, Colin, 2018. "Is gasoline price elasticity in the United States increasing? Evidence from the 2009 and 2017 national household travel surveys," Ruhr Economic Papers 765, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    14. Donna, Javier D., 2018. "Measuring Long-Run Price Elasticities in Urban Travel Demand," MPRA Paper 90059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Nathan H. Miller & Matthew Osborne, 2014. "Spatial differentiation and price discrimination in the cement industry: evidence from a structural model," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 45(2), pages 221-247, June.
    16. Tilov, Ivan & Weber, Sylvain, 2023. "Heterogeneity in price elasticity of vehicle kilometers traveled: Evidence from micro-level panel data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    17. Michael Bates & Seolah Kim, 2019. "Per-Cluster Instrumental Variables Estimation: Uncovering the Price Elasticity of the Demand for Gasoline," Working Papers 202003, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    18. Allcott, Hunt & Mullainathan, Sendhil & Taubinsky, Dmitry, 2014. "Energy policy with externalities and internalities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 72-88.
    19. Victor Aguirregabiria & Margaret Slade, 2017. "Empirical models of firms and industries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1445-1488, December.
    20. Silvia Tiezzi & Stefano F. Verde, 2017. "The signaling effect of gasoline taxes and its distributional implications," RSCAS Working Papers 2017/06, European University Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capacity outages; Gasoline demand price elasticity; Instrumental variable estimation; California gasoline market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2025-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Subgerencia de desarrollo de sistemas (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bangvmx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.