IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_6792.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Tale of Two Tails: Commuting and the Fuel Price Response in Driving

Author

Listed:
  • Kenneth Gillingham
  • Anders Munk-Nielsen

Abstract

Pricing greenhouse gases is widely understood as the most efficient approach for mitigating climate change, yet distributional effects hamper political acceptance. These distributional effects are especially important in transport, the fastest growing sector for greenhouse gas emissions. Using rich data covering the entire population of vehicles and households in Denmark, this study uncovers an important feature of driving demand: two groups of much more responsive households in the lower and upper tails of the work distance distribution. We further estimate the causal effect of public transport–a critical determinant of the upper tail–and show how public transport access can both reconcile differences in fuel price elasticities between the United States and Europe, and considerably influence the distributional effects of fuel pricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth Gillingham & Anders Munk-Nielsen, 2017. "A Tale of Two Tails: Commuting and the Fuel Price Response in Driving," CESifo Working Paper Series 6792, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6792
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp6792.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Espey, Molly, 1998. "Gasoline demand revisited: an international meta-analysis of elasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 273-295, June.
    2. Poterba, James M, 1989. "Lifetime Incidence and the Distributional Burden of Excise Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 325-330, May.
    3. John Coglianese & Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian & James H. Stock, 2017. "Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 1-15, January.
    4. James M. Poterba, 1991. "Is the Gasoline Tax Regressive?," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 145-164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Laurence Levin & Matthew S. Lewis & Frank A. Wolak, 2017. "High Frequency Evidence on the Demand for Gasoline," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 314-347, August.
    6. Glaeser, Edward L. & Kahn, Matthew E., 2010. "The greenness of cities: Carbon dioxide emissions and urban development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 404-418, May.
    7. Fabio Grazi & Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh & Jos N. van Ommeren, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Urban Form, Transport, and Global Warming," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 97-122.
    8. Xavier D'Haultfœuille & Pauline Givord & Xavier Boutin, 2014. "The Environmental Effect of Green Taxation: The Case of the French Bonus/Malus," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(578), pages 444-480, August.
    9. Mark R. Jacobsen, 2013. "Evaluating US Fuel Economy Standards in a Model with Producer and Household Heterogeneity," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 148-187, May.
    10. Christopher R. Knittel & Ryan Sandler, 2018. "The Welfare Impact of Second-Best Uniform-Pigouvian Taxation: Evidence from Transportation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 211-242, November.
    11. Joshua Linn, 2016. "The Rebound Effect for Passenger Vehicles," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    12. Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Daniel Sperling, 2008. "Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 113-134.
    13. Robinson, Peter M, 1988. "Root- N-Consistent Semiparametric Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 931-954, July.
    14. Lucas W. Davis & Christopher R. Knittel, 2019. "Are Fuel Economy Standards Regressive?," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(S1), pages 37-63.
    15. Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 1187-1214, November.
    16. Arik Levinson, 2019. "Energy Efficiency Standards Are More Regressive Than Energy Taxes: Theory and Evidence," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(S1), pages 7-36.
    17. Kenneth Gillingham & David Rapson & Gernot Wagner, 2016. "The Rebound Effect and Energy Efficiency Policy," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(1), pages 68-88.
    18. Kenneth A. Small & Kurt Van Dender, 2007. "Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-52.
    19. Cristian Huse & Claudio Lucinda, 2014. "The Market Impact and the Cost of Environmental Policy: Evidence from the Swedish Green Car Rebate," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(578), pages 393-419, August.
    20. Shanjun Li & Joshua Linn & Erich Muehlegger, 2014. "Gasoline Taxes and Consumer Behavior," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 302-342, November.
    21. Gillingham, Kenneth, 2014. "Identifying the elasticity of driving: Evidence from a gasoline price shock in California," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 13-24.
    22. Antonio M. Bento & Maureen L. Cropper & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Katja Vinha, 2005. "The Effects of Urban Spatial Structure on Travel Demand in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 466-478, August.
    23. Manuel Frondel and Colin Vance, 2013. "Re-Identifying the Rebound: What About Asymmetry?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    24. Gilles Duranton & Matthew A. Turner, 2011. "The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from US Cities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2616-2652, October.
    25. Severin Borenstein & Lucas W. Davis, 2016. "The Distributional Effects of US Clean Energy Tax Credits," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 191-234.
    26. Mulalic, Ismir & Rouwendal, Jan, 2020. "Does improving public transport decrease car ownership? Evidence from a residential sorting model for the Copenhagen metropolitan area," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    27. Hausman, Jerry A & Newey, Whitney K, 1995. "Nonparametric Estimation of Exact Consumers Surplus and Deadweight Loss," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(6), pages 1445-1476, November.
    28. Antonio M. Bento & Lawrence H. Goulder & Mark R. Jacobsen & Roger H. von Haefen, 2009. "Distributional and Efficiency Impacts of Increased US Gasoline Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 667-699, June.
    29. Mayeres, Inge & Proost, Stef, 2013. "The taxation of diesel cars in Belgium – revisited," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 33-41.
    30. Ivan A. Canay, 2011. "A simple approach to quantile regression for panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(3), pages 368-386, October.
    31. Richard Blundell & Joel L. Horowitz & Matthias Parey, 2012. "Measuring the price responsiveness of gasoline demand: Economic shape restrictions and nonparametric demand estimation," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 3(1), pages 29-51, March.
    32. Kim, Jinwon & Brownstone, David, 2010. "The impact of residential density on vehicle usage and fuel consumption," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt31m0w2x3, University of California Transportation Center.
    33. Abrevaya, Jason & Dahl, Christian M, 2008. "The Effects of Birth Inputs on Birthweight," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 379-397.
    34. Roberton C. Williams III & Hal Gordon & Dallas Burtraw & Jared C. Carbone & Richard D. Morgenstern, 2015. "The Initial Incidence of a Carbon Tax Across Income Groups," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 68(1), pages 195-214, March.
    35. West, Sarah E. & Williams, R.C.Roberton III, 2004. "Estimates from a consumer demand system: implications for the incidence of environmental taxes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 535-558, May.
    36. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
    37. Dahl, Carol & Sterner, Thomas, 1991. "Analysing gasoline demand elasticities: a survey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 203-210, July.
    38. De Borger, Bruno & Mulalic, Ismir & Rouwendal, Jan, 2016. "Substitution between cars within the household," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 135-156.
    39. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
    40. Kayser, Hilke A., 2000. "Gasoline demand and car choice: estimating gasoline demand using household information," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 331-348, June.
    41. José A. F. Machado & José Mata, 2005. "Counterfactual decomposition of changes in wage distributions using quantile regression," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 445-465, May.
    42. Verboven, Frank & Grigolon, Laura & Reynaert, Mathias, 2014. "Consumer valuation of fuel costs and the effectiveness of tax policy: Evidence from the European car market," CEPR Discussion Papers 10301, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    43. Bento, Antonio M. & Cropper, Maureen L. & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq & Vinha, Katja, 2003. "The impact of urban spatial structure on travel demand in the United States," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3007, The World Bank.
    44. Brons, Martijn & Nijkamp, Peter & Pels, Eric & Rietveld, Piet, 2008. "A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A SUR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2105-2122, September.
    45. West, Sarah E., 2004. "Distributional effects of alternative vehicle pollution control policies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3-4), pages 735-757, March.
    46. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 766-779, September.
    47. Christopher R. Knittel & Ryan Sandler, 2013. "The Welfare Impact of Indirect Pigouvian Taxation: Evidence from Transportation," NBER Working Papers 18849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    48. De Borger, Bruno & Mulalic, Ismir & Rouwendal, Jan, 2016. "Measuring the rebound effect with micro data: A first difference approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-17.
    49. McFadden, Daniel, 1974. "The measurement of urban travel demand," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 303-328, November.
    50. Sterner, Thomas, 2012. "Distributional effects of taxing transport fuel," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 75-83.
    51. Gillingham, Kenneth & Jenn, Alan & Azevedo, Inês M.L., 2015. "Heterogeneity in the response to gasoline prices: Evidence from Pennsylvania and implications for the rebound effect," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(S1), pages 41-52.
    52. Hymel, Kent M. & Small, Kenneth A., 2015. "The rebound effect for automobile travel: Asymmetric response to price changes and novel features of the 2000s," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 93-103.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Tong & Burke, Paul J., 2020. "The effect of fuel prices on traffic flows: Evidence from New South Wales," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 502-522.
    2. Matsushima, Hiroshi & Khanna, Madhu, 2022. "Estimating Medium-run Direct Rebound Effects of the Footprint-based CAFE Standard," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322420, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Gustav Engström & Johan Gars & Niko Jaakkola & Therese Lindahl & Daniel Spiro & Arthur A. van Benthem, 2020. "What Policies Address Both the Coronavirus Crisis and the Climate Crisis?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 789-810, August.
    4. Tilov, Ivan & Weber, Sylvain, 2023. "Heterogeneity in price elasticity of vehicle kilometers traveled: Evidence from micro-level panel data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    5. Alberini, Anna & Horvath, Marco & Vance, Colin, 2022. "Drive less, drive better, or both? Behavioral adjustments to fuel price changes in Germany," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Inge van den Bijgaart & David Klenert & Linus Mattauch & Simona Sulikova, 2024. "Healthy climate, healthy bodies: Optimal fuel taxation and physical activity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(361), pages 93-122, January.
    7. Patrick Bigler & Doina Maria Radulescu, 2022. "Environmental, Redistributive and Revenue Effects of Policies Promoting Fuel Efficient and Electric Vehicles," CESifo Working Paper Series 9645, CESifo.
    8. Mattauch, Linus & van den Bijgaart, Inge & Klenert, David & Sulikova, Simona, 2020. "Optimal fuel taxation with suboptimal health choices," INET Oxford Working Papers 2020-22, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    9. Frondel, Manuel & Marggraf, Clemens & Sommer, Stephan & Vance, Colin, 2021. "Reducing vehicle cold start emissions through carbon pricing: Evidence from Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 896, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Thomas Hagedorn & Till Kösters & Jan Wessel & Sebastian Specht, 2023. "No Need for Speed: Fuel Prices, Driving Speeds, and the Revealed Value of Time on the German Autobahn," Working Papers 39, Institute of Transport Economics, University of Muenster.
    11. Leroutier, Marion & Quirion, Philippe, 2023. "Tackling Car Emissions in Urban Areas: Shift, Avoid, Improve," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    12. Mateus Rodrigues & Daniel Da Mata & Vitor Possebom, 2024. "Free Public Transport: More Jobs without Environmental Damage?," Papers 2410.06037, arXiv.org.
    13. Kenneth Gillingham & Fedor Iskhakov & Anders Munk-Nielsen & John P. Rust & Bertel Schjerning, 2019. "Equilibrium Trade in Automobile Markets," NBER Working Papers 25840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Craglia, Matteo & Cullen, Jonathan, 2020. "Do vehicle efficiency improvements lead to energy savings? The rebound effect in Great Britain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    15. Berry, Carl & Börjesson, Maria, 2024. "Income and fuel price elasticities of car use on micro panel data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    16. Alberini, Anna & Horvath, Marco & Vance, Colin, 2021. "Drive less, drive better, or both? Behavioral adjustments to fuel price changes in Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 892, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    17. Harju, Jarkko & Kosonen, Tuomas & Laukkanen, Marita & Palanne, Kimmo, 2022. "The heterogeneous incidence of fuel carbon taxes: Evidence from station-level data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    18. Randall Wigle, 2019. "The Economic Case for EV Supports? Or: Network Effects, EV Pessimism and EV Supports," LCERPA Working Papers ec0123, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 23 Oct 2019.
    19. Fanying Zheng & Fu Gu & Wujie Zhang & Jianfeng Guo, 2019. "Is Bicycle Sharing an Environmental Practice? Evidence from a Life Cycle Assessment Based on Behavioral Surveys," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-25, March.
    20. Börjesson, Maria & Asplund, Disa & Hamilton, Carl, 2023. "Optimal kilometre tax for electric vehicles," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 52-64.
    21. Axsen, Jonn & Wolinetz, Michael, 2021. "Taxes, tolls and ZEV zones for climate: Synthesizing insights on effectiveness, efficiency, equity, acceptability and implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tilov, Ivan & Weber, Sylvain, 2023. "Heterogeneity in price elasticity of vehicle kilometers traveled: Evidence from micro-level panel data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    2. Donna, Javier D., 2018. "Measuring Long-Run Price Elasticities in Urban Travel Demand," MPRA Paper 90059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Gillingham, Kenneth & Jenn, Alan & Azevedo, Inês M.L., 2015. "Heterogeneity in the response to gasoline prices: Evidence from Pennsylvania and implications for the rebound effect," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(S1), pages 41-52.
    4. Dimitropoulos, Alexandros & Oueslati, Walid & Sintek, Christina, 2018. "The rebound effect in road transport: A meta-analysis of empirical studies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 163-179.
    5. Silvia Tiezzi & Stefano F. Verde, 2017. "The signaling effect of gasoline taxes and its distributional implications," RSCAS Working Papers 2017/06, European University Institute.
    6. Javier D. Donna, 2021. "Measuring long‐run gasoline price elasticities in urban travel demand," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 52(4), pages 945-994, December.
    7. Sulikova, Simona & van den Bijgaart, Inge & Klenert, David & Mattauch, Linus, 2020. "Optimal fuel taxation with suboptimal health choices," Working Papers in Economics 794, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    8. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2024. "Heterogeneity in the pass-through from oil to gasoline prices: A new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    9. Mohammad Vesal & Amir Hossein Tavakoli & Mohammad H. Rahmati, 2022. "What do one hundred million transactions tell us about demand elasticity of gasoline?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2693-2711, June.
    10. Chen, Haotian & Smyth, Russell & Zhang, Xibin, 2017. "A Bayesian sampling approach to measuring the price responsiveness of gasoline demand using a constrained partially linear model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 346-354.
    11. Moritz A. Drupp & Ulrike Kornek & Jasper N. Meya & Lutz Sager, 2021. "Inequality and the Environment: The Economics of a Two-Headed Hydra," CESifo Working Paper Series 9447, CESifo.
    12. Silvia Tiezzi & Stefano F. Verde, 2019. "The signaling effect of gasoline taxes and its distributional implications," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(2), pages 145-169, June.
    13. Silvia Tiezzi & Stefano F. Verde, 2019. "The signaling effect of gasoline taxes and its distributional implications," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(2), pages 145-169, June.
    14. Knittel, Christopher R. & Tanaka, Shinsuke, 2021. "Fuel economy and the price of gasoline: Evidence from fueling-level micro data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    15. Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2014. "Shedding light on the appropriateness of the (high) gasoline tax level in Germany," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 189-210.
    16. Goetzke, Frank & Vance, Colin, 2021. "An increasing gasoline price elasticity in the United States?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    17. Marz, Waldemar & Goetzke, Frank, 2022. "CAFE in the city — A spatial analysis of fuel economy standards," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    18. Yuliya Lovcha & Alejandro Perez-Laborda, 2017. "Structural shocks and dynamic elasticities in a long memory model of the US gasoline retail market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 405-422, September.
    19. De Borger, Bruno & Mulalic, Ismir & Rouwendal, Jan, 2016. "Substitution between cars within the household," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 135-156.
    20. Michael Bates & Seolah Kim, 2024. "Estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand in correlated random coefficient models with endogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 679-696, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    transportation; distributional effects; urban form; environmental taxes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L90 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - General
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6792. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.