IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tor/tecipa/tecipa-370.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from US cities

Author

Listed:
  • Gilles Duranton
  • Matthew A. Turner

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between interstate highways and highway vehicle kilometers traveled (vkt) in us cities. We find that vkt increases proportionately to highways and identify three important sources for this extra vkt: an increase in driving by current residents; an increase in transportation intensive production activity; and an inflow of new residents. The provision of public transportation has no impact on vkt. We also estimate the aggregate city level demand for vkt and find it to be very elastic. We conclude that an increased provision of roads or public transit is unlikely to relieve congestion and that the current provision of roads exceeds the optimum given the absence of congestion pricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Duranton & Matthew A. Turner, 2009. "The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from US cities," Working Papers tecipa-370, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-370
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.economics.utoronto.ca/public/workingPapers/tecipa-370.pdf
    File Function: Main Text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.economics.utoronto.ca/public/workingPapers/tecipa-370-1.pdf
    File Function: Addendum
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glaeser, Edward L. & Scheinkman, JoseA. & Shleifer, Andrei, 1995. "Economic growth in a cross-section of cities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 117-143, August.
    2. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2009. "Do Political Parties Matter? Evidence from U.S. Cities," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(1), pages 399-422.
    3. Hansen, Mark & Gillen, David & Dobbins, Allison & Huang, Yuanlin & Puvathingal, Mohnish, 1993. "The Air Quality Impacts of Urban Highway Capacity Expansion: Traffic Generation and Land Use Change," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt6zz3k76c, University of California Transportation Center.
    4. Robert Cervero & Mark Hansen, 2002. "Induced Travel Demand and Induced Road Investment: A Simultaneous Equation Analysis," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(3), pages 469-490, September.
    5. Guy Michaels, 2008. "The Effect of Trade on the Demand for Skill: Evidence from the Interstate Highway System," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 683-701, November.
    6. Timothy J. Bartik, 2003. "Local Economic Development Policies," Upjohn Working Papers 03-91, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    7. Small, Kenneth A. & Gomez-Ibanez, Jose A., 1999. "Urban transportation," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: P. C. Cheshire & E. S. Mills (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 46, pages 1937-1999, Elsevier.
    8. Alan B. Krueger & Daniel Kahneman & David Schkade & Norbert Schwarz & Arthur A. Stone, 2009. "National Time Accounting: The Currency of Life," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring the Subjective Well-Being of Nations: National Accounts of Time Use and Well-Being, pages 9-86, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Chen Ng & Kenneth Small, 2012. "Tradeoffs among free-flow speed, capacity, cost, and environmental footprint in highway design," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(6), pages 1259-1280, November.
    10. Alan B. Krueger & Daniel Kahneman & David Schkade & Norbert Schwarz & Arthur A. Stone, 2008. "National Time Accounting: The Currency of Life," Working Papers 1061, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    11. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413, September.
    12. Gilles Duranton & Matthew A. Turner, 2011. "The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from US Cities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2616-2652, October.
    13. Krueger, Alan B. (ed.), 2009. "Measuring the Subjective Well-Being of Nations," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226454566, September.
    14. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    15. Nathaniel Baum-Snow, 2007. "Did Highways Cause Suburbanization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 775-805.
    16. John G. Fernald, 1999. "Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link between Public Capital and Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 619-638, June.
    17. Robert Noland & William Cowart, 2000. "Analysis of Metropolitan Highway Capacity and the growth in vehicle miles of travel," Transportation, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 363-390, December.
    18. Gilles Duranton & Matthew A. Turner, 2012. "Urban Growth and Transportation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1407-1440.
    19. Jonathan Leape, 2006. "The London Congestion Charge," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 157-176, Fall.
    20. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle.
    22. Alan B. Krueger, 2009. "Measuring the Subjective Well-Being of Nations: National Accounts of Time Use and Well-Being," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krue08-1.
    23. Keeler, Theodore E & Small, Kenneth A, 1977. "Optimal Peak-Load Pricing, Investment, and Service Levels on Urban Expressways," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 1-25, February.
    24. Chandra, Amitabh & Thompson, Eric, 2000. "Does public infrastructure affect economic activity?: Evidence from the rural interstate highway system," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 457-490, July.
    25. Herbert Mohring, 1961. "Land Values and the Measurement of Highway Benefits," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 236-236.
    26. Krueger, Alan B. (ed.), 2009. "Measuring the Subjective Well-Being of Nations," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226454573, December.
    27. Hansen, Mark & Huang, Yuanlin, 1997. "Road supply and traffic in California urban areas," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 205-218, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hsu, Wen-Tai & Zhang, Hongliang, 2014. "The fundamental law of highway congestion revisited: Evidence from national expressways in Japan," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 65-76.
    2. Baum-Snow, Nathaniel & Ferreira, Fernando, 2015. "Causal Inference in Urban and Regional Economics," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 3-68, Elsevier.
    3. Hymel, Kent, 2019. "If you build it, they will drive: Measuring induced demand for vehicle travel in urban areas," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 57-66.
    4. Miquel-Àngel Garcia-López & Ilias Pasidis & Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal, 2022. "Congestion in highways when tolls and railroads matter: evidence from European cities [The congestion relief benefit of public transit: evidence from Rome]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(5), pages 931-960.
    5. Gilles Duranton & Matthew A. Turner, 2012. "Urban Growth and Transportation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1407-1440.
    6. Pierre-Philippe Combes & Gilles Duranton & Laurent Gobillon, 2012. "The Cost of Agglomeration: Land Prices in Cities," Working Papers hal-03461075, HAL.
    7. Gibbons, Stephen & Lyytikäinen, Teemu & Overman, Henry G. & Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa, 2019. "New road infrastructure: The effects on firms," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 35-50.
    8. Duranton, Gilles, 2015. "Roads and trade in Colombia," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 16-36.
    9. Garcia-López, Miquel-Àngel, 2019. "All roads lead to Rome … and to sprawl? Evidence from European cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Pierre-Philippe Combes & Gilles Duranton & Laurent Gobillon, 2019. "The Costs of Agglomeration: House and Land Prices in French Cities," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1556-1589.
    11. Claudia N. Berg & Uwe Deichmann & Yishen Liu & Harris Selod, 2017. "Transport Policies and Development," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(4), pages 465-480, April.
    12. Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Duranton, Gilles & Gobillon, Laurent, 2012. "The Costs of Agglomeration: Land Prices in French Cities," IZA Discussion Papers 7027, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/68snpauh718coq747l6ekv80cd is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Victor Couture & Gilles Duranton & Matthew A. Turner, 2018. "Speed," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 725-739, October.
      • Victor Couture & Gilles Duranton & Matthew Turner, 2016. "Speed," Working Papers hal-03459352, HAL.
    15. Gilles Duranton & Peter M. Morrow & Matthew A. Turner, 2014. "Roads and Trade: Evidence from the US," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(2), pages 681-724.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/68snpauh718coq747l6ekv80cd is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5h955p9lcb808of8er6b8b8ck9 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Garcia-López, Miquel-Ángel & Holl, Adelheid & Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet, 2015. "Suburbanization and highways in Spain when the Romans and the Bourbons still shape its cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 52-67.
    19. Duranton, Gilles & Puga, Diego, 2015. "Urban Land Use," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 467-560, Elsevier.
    20. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Carballo, Jerónimo & Cusolito, Ana, 2017. "Roads, exports and employment: Evidence from a developing country," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 21-39.
    21. Kim, Jinwon, 2022. "Does roadwork improve road speed? Evidence from urban freeways in California," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5h955p9lcb808of8er6b8b8ck9 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Miquel- Àngel Garcia-López & Adelheid Holl & Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal, 2013. "Suburbanization and highways: when the romans, the bourbons and the first cars still shape Spanish cities," Working Papers 2013/5, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    24. Das, Abhiman & Ghani, Ejaz & Grover, Arti & Kerr, William & Nanda, Ramana, 2024. "JUE insight: Infrastructure and Finance: Evidence from India’s GQ highway network," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    highways; vehiclekilometers traveled; public transport; congestion.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L91 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Transportation: General
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-370. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RePEc Maintainer (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.