How much does an increase in oil prices affect the global economy ? some insights from a general equilibrium analysis
A global computable general equilibrium model is used to analyze the economic impacts of rising oil prices with endogenously determined availability of biofuels to mitigate those impacts. The negative effects on the global economy are comparable to those found in other studies, but the impacts are unevenly distributed across countries/regions or sectors. The agricultural sectors of high-income countries, which are relatively energy intensive, would suffer more from rising oil prices than would those in lower-income countries, whereas the reverse is true for the impacts across manufacturing sectors. The impacts are especially strong for oil importers with relatively energy-intensive manufacturing and trade, such as India and China. Although the availability of biofuels does mitigate some of the negative impacts of rising oil prices, the benefit is small because the capacity of biofuels to economically substitute for fossil fuels on a large scale remains limited.
|Date of creation:||01 Jun 2013|
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- AydIn, Levent & Acar, Mustafa, 2011. "Economic impact of oil price shocks on the Turkish economy in the coming decades: A dynamic CGE analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1722-1731, March.
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- Govinda R. Timilsina & John C. Beghin & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Simon Mevel, 2012.
"The impacts of biofuels targets on land‐use change and food supply: A global CGE assessment,"
International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 315-332, May.
- Timilsina, Govinda & Beghin, John C. & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Mevel, Simon, 2010. "The Impacts of Biofuels Targets on Land-Use Change and Food Supply: A Global Cge Assessment," Staff General Research Papers Archive 32206, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Timilsina, Govinda R. & Beghin, John C. & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Mevel, Simon, 2010. "The impacts of biofuel targets on land-use change and food supply : a global CGE assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5513, The World Bank.
- Timilsina, Govinda R. & Mevel, Simon & Shrestha, Ashish, 2011. "Oil price, biofuels and food supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8098-8105.
- Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Marcelo Sanchez, 2005. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 201-228.
- Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Sánchez, Marcelo, 2004. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Working Paper Series 362, European Central Bank.
- Timilsina, Govinda R. & Csordás, Stefan & Mevel, Simon, 2011. "When does a carbon tax on fossil fuels stimulate biofuels?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 2400-2415. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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