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Oil price shocks and trade imbalances

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  • Le, Thai-Ha
  • Chang, Youngho

Abstract

This study aims to examine whether a large part of the variability of trade balances and their oil and non-oil components is associated with oil price fluctuations. The long-run causality running from oil price to overall, oil and non-oil trade balances and their short-run dynamics are investigated by applying the Toda and Yamamoto, 1995 (TY) causality approach and generalized impulse response functions (IRFs), respectively to the monthly data spanning from January 1999 to November 2011. Three Asian economies that represent three distinct characteristics in terms of oil are chosen and examined: Malaysia as an oil exporter, Singapore as an oil refinery and Japan as an oil importer. The stability of the causality is also checked and the estimated impulse responses across different periods are examined. The results have implications for both policy makers and economic modeling of the impact of oil price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho, 2013. "Oil price shocks and trade imbalances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 78-96.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:36:y:2013:i:c:p:78-96
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.12.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nuray Terzi & Sadullah Celik, 2016. "Oil Prices And Trade In Turkey: A Wavelet Continuous Transform Analysis," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 4(4), pages 29-41.
    2. Rafiq, Shudhasattwa & Sgro, Pasquale & Apergis, Nicholas, 2016. "Asymmetric oil shocks and external balances of major oil exporting and importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 42-50.
    3. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2017. "Oil currencies in the face of oil shocks: what can be learned from time-varying specifications?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(18), pages 1774-1793, April.
    4. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Joëts, Marc & Razafindrabe, Tovonony, 2017. "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies: The case of Canada," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 63-78.
    5. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2014. "Oil price and macroeconomy in India – An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach," Working Papers 2014-68, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    6. Mehdi Ben Slimane & Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon & Habib Zitouna, 2016. "Do FDI inflows and energy price affect the food import dependency in developing countries? Evidence from panel VAR Models," Working Papers SMART - LERECO 16-04, INRA UMR SMART-LERECO.
    7. Cunado, Juncal & Jo, Soojin & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2015. "Macroeconomic impacts of oil price shocks in Asian economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 867-879.
    8. repec:eaa:aeinde:v:17:y:2017:i:2_10 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Carlos A. Carrasco & Felipe Serrano, 2014. "Global and European Imbalances:A critical review," Working papers wpaper42, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    10. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Mohamed Arouri & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "Oil prices and trade balance: A frequency domain analysis for India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 663-680.
    11. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Olaolu Richard Olayeni, 2013. "Oil prices and trade balance: A wavelet based analysis for India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2270-2286.
    12. repec:eee:enepol:v:109:y:2017:i:c:p:854-862 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Sotoudeh, M-Ali & Worthington, Andrew C., 2016. "Estimating the effects of global oil market shocks on Australian merchandise trade," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 74-84.
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    17. Juncal Cunado & Soojin Jo & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2015. "Revisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Shocks in Asian Economies," Staff Working Papers 15-23, Bank of Canada.
    18. Raghavan, Mala, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on ASEAN-5 economies," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
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    20. Huntington, Hillard G., 2015. "Crude oil trade and current account deficits," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 70-79.
    21. Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho, 2015. "Effects of oil price shocks on the stock market performance: Do nature of shocks and economies matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 261-274.
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    23. Suleyman ACIKALIN & Erginbay UGURLU, 2014. "Oil Price Fluctuations and Trade Balance of Turkey," International Conference on Economic Sciences and Business Administration, Spiru Haret University, vol. 1(1), pages 6-13, December.
    24. Zhang, Hai-Ying & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2015. "What drives the formation of global oil trade patterns?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 639-648.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price shock; Trade balance; VAR; Granger non-causality test; Gregory-Hansen cointegration test;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • N75 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Asia including Middle East

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