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Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures oil prices: Evidence from quantile cointegrating regression

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  • Lee, Chien-Chiang
  • Zeng, Jhih-Hong

Abstract

Since most real decisions depend upon current market states or whether it is advantageous to the participants themselves, this paper revisits the relationship between spot and futures oil prices of West Texas Intermediate covering 1986 to 2009 with an innovative approach named quantile cointegration. Different to previous perspectives, we target the issues of cointegrating relationships, causalities, and market efficiency based on different market states under different maturities of oil futures. In our empirical analysis, except for market efficiency, long-run cointegrating relationships and causalities between spot and futures oil prices have significant differentials among futures maturities and the performances of spot oil markets. Furthermore, the response of spot prices to shocks in 1-month futures oil prices is much steeper in high spot prices than in low spot prices. This phenomenon is consistent with the prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979), in that the value function is generally steeper for losses than for gains.

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  • Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zeng, Jhih-Hong, 2011. "Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures oil prices: Evidence from quantile cointegrating regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 924-935, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:33:y:2011:i:5:p:924-935
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    Cited by:

    1. Cho, Jin Seo & Kim, Tae-hwan & Shin, Yongcheol, 2015. "Quantile cointegration in the autoregressive distributed-lag modeling framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 281-300.
    2. Zeng, Jhih-Hong & Peng, Chi-Lu & Chen, Ming-Chi & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2013. "Wealth effects on the housing markets: Do market liquidity and market states matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 488-495.
    3. Chang, Chun-Ping & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Hsieh, Meng-Chi, 2015. "Does globalization promote real output? Evidence from quantile cointegration regression," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 25-36.
    4. Chang, Chun-Ping & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2015. "Do oil spot and futures prices move together?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 379-390.
    5. Wang, Yu Shan, 2013. "Oil price effects on personal consumption expenditures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 198-204.
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    7. Mihaela Nicolau, 2012. "Do Spot Prices Move towards Futures Prices? A study on Crude Oil Market," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 5(5), pages 166-176, October.
    8. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chi-Chuan Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2015. "Globalization, Economic Growth and Institutional Development in China," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 31-63, March.
    9. Shrestha, Keshab, 2014. "Price discovery in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 229-233.
    10. Saralees Nadarajah & Emmanuel Afuecheta & Stephen Chan, 2015. "GARCH modeling of five popular commodities," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1691-1712, June.
    11. Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zeng, Jhih-Hong, 2014. "The relationship between spot and futures oil prices: Do structural breaks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 206-217.
    12. Huang, Xuan & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Hao, Xiaoqing & Liu, Pengpeng, 2015. "Multiresolution transmission of the correlation modes between bivariate time series based on complex network theory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 428(C), pages 493-506.
    13. repec:spr:empeco:v:52:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1114-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wang, Zi-Yi, 2013. "Investigating the price discovery and risk transfer functions in the crude oil and gasoline futures markets: Some empirical evidence," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 220-228.
    15. repec:spr:empeco:v:52:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1101-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Mihaela NICOLAU & Giulio PALOMBA & Ilaria TRAINI, 2013. "Are Futures Prices Influenced by Spot;Prices or Vice-versa? An Analysis of Crude;Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Markets," Working Papers 394, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    17. Li, Haiqi & Zheng, Chaowen & Guo, Yu, 2016. "Estimation and test for quantile nonlinear cointegrating regression," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 27-32.
    18. repec:eco:journ2:2017-06-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Naser, Hanan, 2016. "Estimating and forecasting the real prices of crude oil: A data rich model using a dynamic model averaging (DMA) approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 75-87.
    20. Zhu, Huiming & Peng, Cheng & You, Wanhai, 2016. "Quantile behaviour of cointegration between silver and gold prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 119-125.
    21. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2013. "Are crude oil spot and futures prices cointegrated? Not always!," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 641-650.
    22. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Regime-dependent adjustment in energy spot and futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 400-409.

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