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Debt ceiling and fiscal sustainability in Brazil: A quantile autoregression approach

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  • Lima, Luiz Renato
  • Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza
  • Sampaio, Raquel M.B.

Abstract

In this paper we investigate fiscal sustainability by using a quantile autoregression (QAR) model. We propose a novel methodology to separate periods of nonstationarity from stationary ones, allowing us to identify various trajectories of public debt that are compatible with fiscal sustainability. We use such trajectories to construct a debt ceiling, that is, the largest value of public debt that does not jeopardize long-run fiscal sustainability. We make an out-of-sample forecast of such a ceiling and show how it could be used by Policy makers interested in keeping the public debt on a sustainable path. We illustrate the applicability of our results using Brazilian data.

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  • Lima, Luiz Renato & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Sampaio, Raquel M.B., 2008. "Debt ceiling and fiscal sustainability in Brazil: A quantile autoregression approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 313-335, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:86:y:2008:i:2:p:313-335
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    2. Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira, 2015. "Fiscal Rules, Automatic Stabilizers and Discretionary Fiscal Actions: Analyzing an Emerging Economy," International Finance and Banking, Macrothink Institute, vol. 2(2), pages 25-38, December.
    3. Mário Jorge Mendonça & Cláudio H. dos Santos, 2008. "Revisitando a Função de Reação Fiscal no Brasil Pós-Real: Uma Abordagem de Mudanças de Regime," Discussion Papers 1337, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    4. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Cheng-Feng & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2014. "Asymmetric dynamics in REIT prices: Further evidence based on quantile regression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 29-37.
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    6. Tilak Abeysinghe & Ananda Jayawickrama, 2013. "A segmented trend model to assess fiscal sustainability: The US experience 1929–2009," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1129-1141, June.
    7. Mário Jorge Cardoso de Mendonça & Cláudio Hamilton Matos dos Santos, 2008. "Revisitando a Função de Reação Fiscal no Brasil Pós-Real: Uma Abordagem de Mudanças de Regime," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807171729460, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    8. Boengiu, Tudor & Morar Triandafil, Cristina & Morar Triandafil, Adrian, 2011. "Debt Ceiling and External Debt Sustainability in Romania: A Quantile Autoregression Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 15-29, December.
    9. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo, 2015. "Local Unit Root and Inflationary Inertia in Brazil," Working Papers Series 406, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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    12. Zhu, Hui-Ming & Li, ZhaoLai & You, WanHai & Zeng, Zhaofa, 2015. "Revisiting the asymmetric dynamic dependence of stock returns: Evidence from a quantile autoregression model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 142-153.
    13. Johann Bröthaler & Michael Getzner & Gottfried Haber, 2015. "Sustainability of local government debt: a case study of Austrian municipalities," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 521-546, August.

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