IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sce/scecfa/1.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Comparing Value-at-Risk Methodologies

Author

Listed:
  • Luiz Renato Lima
  • Breno Pinheiro Néri

    () (Graduate School of Economics Getúlio Vargas Foundation)

Abstract

We perform a Monte Carlo experimet to compare four different Value-at-Risk methodologies, RiskMetrics, Gaussian GARCH(1,1), Generalized Student-t APARCH(1,1), and ARCH(1) Quantile, under five different data generating processes. The ARCH(1) Quantile methodology does not assume any distribution for the returns, and this robustness is shown to avoid trajectories with too many violations. The number of violations tends to be higher in the non-robust methodologies when the distribution differs from the Gaussian one. We also perform an empirical exercise applying the four Value-at-Risk methodologies to daily return of the IBOVESPA (measured in dollar values) in a period of market turmoil (1996-2000), when happens the Korean crisis, the Russian crisis and the blast of the technology-stock market bubble. We display that, again, the ARCH(1) Quantile methodology dominates the non-robust methodologies, in the sense that it presents the least number of violations

Suggested Citation

  • Luiz Renato Lima & Breno Pinheiro Néri, 2006. "Comparing Value-at-Risk Methodologies," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 1, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.fgv.br/aluno/bneri
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giot, Pierre & Laurent, Sebastien, 2004. "Modelling daily Value-at-Risk using realized volatility and ARCH type models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 379-398, June.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Manganelli, Simone, 2001. "Value at risk models in finance," Working Paper Series 0075, European Central Bank.
    3. Pierre Giot & Sébastien Laurent, 2003. "Value-at-risk for long and short trading positions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 641-663.
    4. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
    5. Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Regulatory Evaluation of Value-at-Risk Models," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-51, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    6. Len Umantsev & Victor Chernozhukov, 2001. "Conditional value-at-risk: Aspects of modeling and estimation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 271-292.
    7. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Funchal, Bruno, 2006. "How much debtors' punishment?," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 615, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    8. Jose A. Lopez, 1999. "Methods for evaluating value-at-risk estimates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-17.
    9. Araújo, Fabio & Issler, João Victor & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2006. "A stochastic discount factor approach to asset pricing using panel data," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 628, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    10. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731, December.
    11. Veloso, Fernando A. & Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Pessôa, Samuel de Abreu, 2006. "The evolution of TFP in Latin America," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 620, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    12. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Nascimento, Leandro Gonçalves do, 2005. "Welfare and growth effects of alternative fiscal rules for infrastructure investment in Brazil," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 604, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    13. Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
    14. Issler, Joao Victor & de Mello Franco-Neto, Afonso Arinos & de Carvalho Guillen, Osmani Teixeira, 2008. "The welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty in the post-war period," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 167-175, February.
    15. Renato G. Flôres & Maria Paula Fontoura & Rogério Guerra Santos, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment Spillovers in Portugal: Additional Lessons from a Country Study," The European Journal of Development Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, pages 372-390.
    16. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:5:p:793-813 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Rubens Penha Cysne, 2006. "Income Inequality in a Job-Search Model With Heterogeneous Discount Factors," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 7(2), pages 217-224.
    18. M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
    19. Pierre Giot & Sébastien Laurent, 2003. "Value-at-risk for long and short trading positions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 641-663.
    20. Monteiro, P. K. & Page Junior, Frank H., 2006. "Resultados uniformemente seguros e equilíbrio de Nash em jogos compactos," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 621, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    21. Monteiro, Paulo Klinger, 2009. "First-price auction symmetric equilibria with a general distribution," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 256-269, January.
    22. GIOT, Pierre, 2003. "The information content of implied volatility indexes for forecasting volatility and market risk," CORE Discussion Papers 2003027, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    23. Svaiter, Benar Fux & Monteiro, P. K. & Page Junior, Frank H., 2006. "Exclusão e multidimensionalidade de tipos em leilões ótimos," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 623, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    24. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
    25. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2006. "An intra-household approach to the welfare costs of inflation (Revised Version, Forthcoming 2006, Estudos Econômicos)," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 612, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    26. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    27. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Watanuki, Masakazu, 2006. "Is China a Northern Partner to Mercosul?," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 617, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    28. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Watanuki, Masakazu, 2006. "Integration options for mercosul - an investigation Uusing the AMIDA Model," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 610, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    29. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    30. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    31. Moura, Rodrigo Leandro de & Neri, Marcelo Cortes, 2006. "Impactos da Nova Lei de Pisos Salariais Estaduais," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 625, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    32. Koenker, Roger & Zhao, Quanshui, 1996. "Conditional Quantile Estimation and Inference for Arch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(05), pages 793-813, December.
    33. GIOT, Pierre, 2002. "The information content of implied volatility in agricultural commodity markets," CORE Discussion Papers 2002038, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    34. Pierre Giot, 2003. "The information content of implied volatility in agricultural commodity markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 441-454, May.
    35. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2006. "Income inequality in a job-search model with heterogeneous discount factors: (revised version, forthcoming 2006, Revista Economia)," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 611, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    36. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    37. Nam, Kiseok & Washer, Kenneth M. & Chu, Quentin C., 2005. "Asymmetric return dynamics and technical trading strategies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 391-418, February.
    38. Neri, Marcelo Cortes & Moura, Rodrigo Leandro de, 2005. "La institucionalidad del salario mínimo en Brasil," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 607, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Lima, Luiz Renato & Linton, Oliver & Smith, Daniel R., 2011. "Evaluating Value-at-Risk Models via Quantile Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 150-160.
    2. Allen, David E. & Amram, Ron & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Volatility spillovers from the Chinese stock market to economic neighbours," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 238-257.
    3. Lima, Luiz Renato & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Sampaio, Raquel M.B., 2008. "Debt ceiling and fiscal sustainability in Brazil: A quantile autoregression approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 313-335.
    4. Aymen BEN REJEB & Ousama BEN SALHA & Jaleleddine BEN REJEB, 2012. "Value-at-Risk Analysis for the Tunisian Currency Market: A Comparative Study," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(2), pages 110-125.
    5. Allen, David E. & McAleer, Michael & Powell, Robert J. & Singh, Abhay K., 2017. "Volatility Spillovers from Australia's major trading partners across the GFC," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 159-175.
    6. Zhijie Xiao & Luiz Renato Lima, 2007. "Testing Covariance Stationarity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 643-667.
    7. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J. Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2012. "Volatility Spillovers from the US to Australia and China across the GFC," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2012-30, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARCH Quantile Value-at-Risk;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/sceeeea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.