IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2012-02-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Value-at-Risk Analysis for the Tunisian Currency Market: A Comparative Study

Author

Listed:
  • Aymen BEN REJEB

    (Higher Institute of Management of Sousse, University of Sousse, Tunisia)

  • Ousama BEN SALHA

    (Higher Institute of Management of Sousse, University of Sousse, Tunisia)

  • Jaleleddine BEN REJEB

    (Higher Institute of Management of Sousse, University of Sousse, Tunisia)

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to compare empirically four Value-at-Risk simulation methods, namely, the Variance-Covariance, the Historical Simulation, the Bootstrapping and the Monte Carlo. We tried to estimate the VaR associated to three currencies and four currency portfolios in the Tunisian exchange market. Data covers the period between 01-01-1999 and 31-12-2007. Independently of the used technique, the Japanese Yen seems to be the most risky currency. Moreover, the portfolio diversification reduces the exchange rate risk. Lastly, the number of violations, when they exist, does not generally differ between the simulation methods. Recent evaluation tests were applied to select the most appropriate technique predicting precisely the exchange rate risk. Results based on these tests suggest that the traditional Variance-Covariance is the most appropriate method.

Suggested Citation

  • Aymen BEN REJEB & Ousama BEN SALHA & Jaleleddine BEN REJEB, 2012. "Value-at-Risk Analysis for the Tunisian Currency Market: A Comparative Study," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(2), pages 110-125.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2012-02-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/126/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/126/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Regulatory Evaluation of Value-at-Risk Models," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-51, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    2. Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
    3. Lima, Luiz Renato & Néri, Breno Pinheiro, 2007. "Comparing Value-at-Risk Methodologies," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 27(1), May.
    4. Margaret Woods & Kevin Dowd & Christopher Humphrey, 2008. "The value of risk reporting: a critical analysis of value-at-risk disclosures in the banking sector," International Journal of Financial Services Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(1), pages 45-64.
    5. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    6. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    7. Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde, 2004. "FOREX Risk: Measurement and Evaluation Using Value‐at‐Risk," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9‐10), pages 1389-1417, November.
    8. Colleen Cassidy & Marianne Gizycki, 1997. "Measuring Traded Market Risk: Value-at-risk and Backtesting Techniques," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9708, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pablo Farías, 2014. "Divulgación del valor en riesgo (VaR) previo a la crisis en el sector bancario espanol," Revista Ad-Minister, Universidad EAFIT, July.
    2. Charles Raoul Tchuinkam Djemo & John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba & Mathias Mandla Manguzvane, 2021. "Exchange Rate Risk and International Equity Portfolio Diversification: A South African Investor’s Perspective," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 36-49.
    3. Ourir, Awatef & Snoussi, Wafa, 2012. "Markets liquidity risk under extremal dependence: Analysis with VaRs methods," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1830-1836.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emmanuel Jurczenko & Bertrand Maillet & Paul Merlin, 2008. "Efficient Frontier for Robust Higher-order Moment Portfolio Selection," Post-Print halshs-00336475, HAL.
    2. Antonio Díaz & Carlos Esparcia, 2021. "Dynamic optimal portfolio choice under time-varying risk aversion," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 166, pages 1-22.
    3. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Henning Fischer & Ángela Blanco‐FERNÁndez & Peter Winker, 2016. "Predicting Stock Return Volatility: Can We Benefit from Regression Models for Return Intervals?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 113-146, March.
    5. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2256 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Sanchez-Romero, Miguel, 2006. "“Demand for Private Annuities and Social Security: Consequences to Individual Wealth”," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2006/07, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    8. Hany Shawky & Ronald Forbes & Alan Frankle, 1983. "Liquidity Services and Capital Market Equilibrium: The Case for Money Market Mutual Funds," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 6(2), pages 141-152, June.
    9. Malavasi, Matteo & Ortobelli Lozza, Sergio & Trück, Stefan, 2021. "Second order of stochastic dominance efficiency vs mean variance efficiency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(3), pages 1192-1206.
    10. Giovanni Bonaccolto & Massimiliano Caporin & Sandra Paterlini, 2018. "Asset allocation strategies based on penalized quantile regression," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 1-32, January.
    11. Chris Kenyon & Andrew Green & Mourad Berrahoui, 2015. "Which measure for PFE? The Risk Appetite Measure, A," Papers 1512.06247, arXiv.org.
    12. Alex Huang, 2013. "Value at risk estimation by quantile regression and kernel estimator," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 225-251, August.
    13. Pirgaip, Burak & Arslan-Ayaydin, Özgür & Karan, Mehmet Baha, 2021. "Do Sukuk provide diversification benefits to conventional bond investors? Evidence from Turkey," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    14. Hooi Hooi Lean & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2013. "Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-31, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, revised Aug 2013.
    15. Jozef Baruník & Tobias Kley, 2019. "Quantile coherency: A general measure for dependence between cyclical economic variables," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 22(2), pages 131-152.
    16. Zhong, Angel, 2018. "Idiosyncratic volatility in the Australian equity market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-125.
    17. Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso & Nogueira, David Coito, 2014. "Análise VAR dos índices bolsistas SP500, FTSE100, PSI20, HSI e IBOVESPA [Integration of the indexes SP500, FTSE100, PSI20, HSI and IBOVESPA: A VAR approach]," MPRA Paper 62092, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Feb 2015.
    18. Chuliá, Helena & Guillén, Montserrat & Uribe, Jorge M., 2017. "Spillovers from the United States to Latin American and G7 stock markets: A VAR quantile analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 32-46.
    19. Figge, Frank & Hahn, Tobias & Barkemeyer, Ralf, 2014. "The If, How and Where of assessing sustainable resource use," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 274-283.
    20. Klaus Schredelseker, 2012. "Finanzkrise — Mitschuld der Theorie?," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 64(8), pages 833-845, December.
    21. Bao, Te & Diks, Cees & Li, Hao, 2018. "A generalized CAPM model with asymmetric power distributed errors with an application to portfolio construction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 611-621.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Value-at-Risk; Tunisian currency market; Monte Carlo simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2012-02-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.