IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Debt ceiling and fiscal sustainability in Brazil: a quantile autoregression approach

  • Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira
  • Sampaio, Raquel Menezes Bezerra
  • Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza

In this paper we investigate fiscal sustainability by using a quantile autoregression (QAR) model. We propose a novel methodology to separate periods of nonstationarity from stationary ones, allowing us to identify various trajectories of public debt that are compatible with fiscal sustainability. We use such trajectories to construct a debt ceiling, that is, the largest value of public debt that does not jeopardize long-run fiscal sustainability. We make an out-of-sample forecast of such a ceiling and show how it could be used by Policy makers interested in keeping the public debt on a sustainable path. We illustrate the applicability of our results using Brazilian data.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/dspace/bitstream/10438/693/1/2154.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) with number 631.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:631
Contact details of provider: Postal: Praia de Botafogo 190, sala 1100, Rio de Janeiro/RJ - CEP: 22253-900
Phone: 55-21-2559-5871
Fax: 55-21-2553-8821
Web page: http://epge.fgv.br
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2006. "Income Inequality in a Job-Search Model With Heterogeneous Discount Factors (Revised Version, Forthcoming 2006, Revista Economia)," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 611, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  2. Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "The behavior of US public debt: a nonlinear perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-125, December.
  3. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
  4. Andrei G. Simonassi & Luiz Renato Lima, 2005. "Dinâmica Não-Linear E Sustentabilidade Da Dívida Pública Brasileira," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 051, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  5. James D. Hamilton & Marjorie A. Flavin, 1985. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing," NBER Working Papers 1632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira & Sampaio, Raquel Menezes Bezerra, 2005. "The Asymmetric Behavior of the U.S. Public Debt," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 593, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  7. Abel, Andrew B, et al, 1989. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January.
  8. Haug, Alfred A, 1991. "Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints: Evidence for the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 97-101, January.
  9. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2006. "An Intra-Household Approach to the Welfare Costs of Inflation (Revised Version, Forthcoming 2006, Estudos Econômicos)," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 612, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  10. Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Rethinking the Univariate Approach to Unit Root Testing: Using Covariates to Increase Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 300., Boston College Department of Economics.
  11. Merih Uctum & Michael Wickens, 1996. "Debt and deficit ceilings, and sustainability of fiscal policies: an intertemporal analysis," Research Paper 9615, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  12. Alberto Alesina & Allan Drazen, 1989. "Why are Stabilizations Delayed?," NBER Working Papers 3053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  14. David W. Wilcox, 1987. "The substainability of government deficits: implications of the present- value borrowing constraint," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Watanuki, Masakazu, 2006. "Is China a Northern Partner to Mercosul?," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 617, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  16. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:55:n:3:a:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Funchal, Bruno, 2006. "How much debtors' punishment?," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 615, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  18. repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Marc Hallin & Bas Werker, 2006. "Discussion of Quantile autoregression, by Koenker and Xiao," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/5428, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  20. Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2002. "Inference on the Quantile Regression Process," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1583-1612, July.
  21. Koenker, Roger & Xiao, Zhijie, 2006. "Quantile Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 980-990, September.
  22. Monteiro, Paulo Klinger & Page Junior, Frank H., 2006. "Resultados uniformemente seguros e equilíbrio de Nash em jogos compactos," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 621, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  23. Rocha, Fabiana, 2001. "Is There Any Rationale to the Brazilian Fiscal Policy?," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 55(3), July.
  24. Pessoa, Samuel de Abreu, 2006. "Perspectivas de Crescimento no Longo Prazo para o Brasil: Questões em Aberto," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 609, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  25. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Working Papers 3372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
  27. Monteiro, Paulo Klinger, 2009. "First-price auction symmetric equilibria with a general distribution," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 256-269, January.
  28. Rubens Penha Cysne, 2006. "Income Inequality in a Job-Search Model With Heterogeneous Discount Factors," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 7(2), pages 217-224.
  29. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Watanuki, Masakazu, 2006. "Integration Options for Mercosul - An Investigation Using the AMIDA Model," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 610, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  30. Svaiter, Benar Fux & Monteiro, Paulo Klinger & Page Junior, Frank H., 2006. "Exclusão e multidimensionalidade de tipos em leilões ótimos," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 623, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  31. Veloso, Fernando A. & Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Gomes & Pessoa, Samuel de Abreu, 2006. "The Evolution of TFP in Latin America," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 620, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  32. Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira & Neri, Breno de Andrade Pinheiro, 2006. "Comparing Value-at-Risk Methodologies," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 629, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  33. Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," Textos para discussão 484, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  34. Moura, Rodrigo Leandro de & Neri, Marcelo Cortes, 2006. "Impactos da Nova Lei de Pisos Salariais Estaduais," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 625, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  35. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Fontoura, Maria Paula & Santos, Rogério Guerra, 2006. "Foreign direct investment spillovers in Portugal: additional lessons from a country study," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 618, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  36. Troy Davig, 2005. "Periodically expanding discounted debt: a threat to fiscal policy sustainability?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 829-840.
  37. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:51:n:4:a:2 is not listed on IDEAS
  38. Philip Arestis & Andrea Cipollini & Bassam Fattouh, 2003. "Threshold Effects in the US Budget Deficit," CEIS Research Paper 18, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
  39. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  40. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  41. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:54:n:2:a:4 is not listed on IDEAS
  42. Efstathios Paparoditis & Dimitris N. Politis, 2003. "Residual-Based Block Bootstrap for Unit Root Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(3), pages 813-855, 05.
  43. Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2004. "Unit Root Quantile Autoregression Inference," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 775-787, January.
  44. João Victor Issler & Afonso Arinos de Mello Franco & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén, 2006. "The Welfare Cost of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in the Post-War Period," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2006-02, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
  45. Neri, Marcelo Cortes & Moura, Rodrigo Leandro de, 2005. "La institucionalidad del salario mínimo en Brasil," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 607, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  46. Araújo, Fabio & Issler, João Victor & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2006. "A Stochastic Discount Factor Approach to Asset Pricing Using Panel Data," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 628, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  47. Henning Bohn, 2005. "The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series 1446, CESifo Group Munich.
  48. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:631. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Núcleo de Computação da EPGE)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.