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Does the US Current Account Show a Symmetric Behavior over the Business Cycle?

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  • Roberto Duncan

    (Ohio University)

Abstract

Traditionally, the literature that attempts to explain the link between the current account and output finds a linear negative relationship (e.g., Backus et al., 1995). Using nonparametric regressions, we find a robust U-shaped relationship between the U.S. current account and the GDP cycle. When output is above (below) its trend the current account and detrended output are positively (negatively) correlated. We argue that this nonlinearity might be caused by persistent productivity shocks coupled with uncertainty shocks about future productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Duncan, 2015. "Does the US Current Account Show a Symmetric Behavior over the Business Cycle?," Working Papers 2015-51, Peruvian Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:apc:wpaper:2015-051
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Costantini, Mauro & Paradiso, Antonio, 2018. "What do panel data say on inequality and GDP? New evidence at US state-level," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 115-117.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    U.S. current account; uncertainty shocks; business cycles; nonparametric regression;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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