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Dynamics Between Strategic Commodities and Financial Variables

Author

Listed:
  • Thai-Ha LE

    (Division of Economics, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore)

  • Youngho CHANG

    (Division of Economics, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore)

Abstract

This study employs the bounds testing approach to cointegration to investigate the relationships between the prices of two strategic commodities (oil and gold) and the financial variables (interest rates, exchange rates and stock prices) of Japan – a major oil-consuming and goldholding country. Our results suggest that the prices of gold and stock can help form expectations of higher inflation over time. In the short run, only gold prices impact the interest rate in Japan. Overall the findings of this study could help the Japanese monetary authority in conducting monetary policy and investors of Japanese yen in building their optimal portfolios. Specifically our findings suggest that the optimal choice in the long term for those who invest in yendenominated assets would be to include gold in their portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Thai-Ha LE & Youngho CHANG, 2011. "Dynamics Between Strategic Commodities and Financial Variables," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1104, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:nan:wpaper:1104
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    File URL: http://www3.ntu.edu.sg/hss2/egc/wp/2011/2011-04.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    strategic commodities; financial variables; bounds test to cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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