IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/93188.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Oil price volatility spillover effects on food prices in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Azeez, Rasheed Oluwaseyi

Abstract

Studies have been done on oil price volatility spillover effects on the prices of food in both pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. However, what has been sparingly studied is oil price volatility spillover effects on urban prices of food and rural prices of food. The disparity in the rural-urban spending in Nigeria is an area that can further be explored by evaluating the effects of oil price volatility spillover on prices of food in these areas. This study therefore adopts GARCH (1, 1)-TY model to evaluate the impulse response function and variance decomposition of these effects on prices of food in pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Findings show that in full sample and post-crisis periods both aggregate price of food (APF) and urban average price of food (APFU) positively respond to oil price shocks while rural average price of food (APFR) responds negatively to oil price shocks. However, the response of the urban average price of food proves to be more significant in the post-crisis periods as it appears relatively most affected in this period by a greater percentage of oil price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Azeez, Rasheed Oluwaseyi, 2018. "Oil price volatility spillover effects on food prices in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 93188, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:93188
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/93188/1/MPRA_paper_93188.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gardebroek, Cornelis & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2013. "Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 119-129.
    2. Lardic, Sandrine & Mignon, Valérie, 2008. "Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 847-855, May.
    3. Reutlinger, Shlomo, 1988. "Efficient alleviation of poverty and hunger : A new international assistance facility," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 56-66, February.
    4. Moses Tule & Afees A. Salisu & Charles Chimeke, 2018. "You are what you eat: The role of oil price in Nigeria inflation forecast," Working Papers 040, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    5. Zapata, Hector O & Rambaldi, Alicia N, 1997. "Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 285-298, May.
    6. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2011. "World oil prices and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from an emerging market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 488-496, May.
    7. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Do oil price increases cause higher food prices?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 691-747, October.
    8. Fowowe, Babajide, 2016. "Do oil prices drive agricultural commodity prices? Evidence from South Africa," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 149-157.
    9. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Impact of Oil Price Shock and Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 16319, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jun 2009.
    10. Marquez, Jaime, 1986. "Oil-price effects in theory and practice," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-27, November.
    11. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    12. Du, Xiaodong & Yu, Cindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2011. "Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 497-503, May.
    13. Alghalith, Moawia, 2010. "The interaction between food prices and oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1520-1522, November.
    14. Natanelov, Valeri & Alam, Mohammad J. & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4971-4984, September.
    15. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    16. Demachi, Kazue, 2012. "The effect of crude oil price change and volatility on Nigerian economy," MPRA Paper 41413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Afees A. Salisu & Umar B. Ndako & Tirimisiyu F. Oloko & Lateef O. Akanni, 2016. "Unit root modeling for trending stock market series," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 16(2), pages 82-91, June.
    18. Gozgor, Giray & Kablamaci, Baris, 2014. "The linkage between oil and agricultural commodity prices in the light of the perceived global risk," MPRA Paper 58659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    20. Brown, Stephen P. A. & Yucel, Mine K., 2002. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 193-208.
    21. Afees A. Salisu & Ismail O. Fasanya, 2012. "Comparative Performance of Volatility Models for Oil Price," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 167-183.
    22. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    23. Harri, Ardian & Nalley, Lanier & Hudson, Darren, 2009. "The Relationship between Oil, Exchange Rates, and Commodity Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 501-510, August.
    24. Zhang, Zibin & Lohr, Luanne & Escalante, Cesar & Wetzstein, Michael, 2010. "Food versus fuel: What do prices tell us?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 445-451, January.
    25. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    26. Ravallion, Martin & van de Walle, Dominique, 1991. "The impact on poverty of food pricing reforms: A welfare analysis for Indonesia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-299.
    27. Nazlioglu, Saban, 2011. "World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2935-2943, May.
    28. Natanelov, Valeri & Alam, Mohammad Jahangir & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Is There Co-Movement of Agricultural Commodities Futures Prices and Crude Oil?," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114626, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    29. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
    30. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2012. "Oil price, agricultural commodity prices, and the dollar: A panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1098-1104.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GARCH (1; 1); TY; APF; APFR; APFU; Oil price volatility spillover; Impulse Response Function; Variance Decomposition;

    JEL classification:

    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:93188. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.