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An Econometric Evaluation of A Geopolitical Theory of Oil Price Behavior

Listed author(s):
  • Slaibi, Ahmad
  • Chapman, Duane
  • Daouk, Hazem
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    Previous work on crude oil price modeling has generally focused on two theoretical approaches, either the optimal control analysis of pricing of a depletable resource, or OPEC as a partial monopolist setting oil prices to maximize net present value. Neither has been wholly satisfactory. We consider a different perspective, a game theory based framework in which political and military factors interact with economic considerations for oil exporters and importers to define a target price zone (TPZ). We analyze several issues in this context: monthly vs. annual average prices, beginning and ending dates for TPZs, degree of stability in several price series (WTI, Brent, etc.), FOB and landed prices, real or nominal prices, OPEC behavior, and effect of the Euro exchange rate on dollar denominated oil prices. We conclude that a TPZ system was in operation from 1986 through 2003 and that OPEC acted as a political cartel exercising market power by controlling production in order to seek to maintain prices within the TPZ. The TPZ worked imperfectly but with a substantial degree of predictability for 18 years. In 2004 and 2005 the TPZ system deteriorated for several reasons, and has not yet been re-established.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/127131
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    Paper provided by Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management in its series Working Papers with number 127131.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2005
    Handle: RePEc:ags:cudawp:127131
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    1. M. Mazraati & S.M. Tayyebi Jazayeri, 2004. "Oil price movements and production agreements," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 28(3), pages 207-226, 09.
    2. Duane Chapman & Neha Khanna, 2001. "An Economic Analysis Of Aspects Of Petroleum And Military Security In The Persian Gulf," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 19(4), pages 371-381, October.
    3. Tang, Linghui & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2002. "An empirical exploration of the world oil price under the target zone model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 577-596, November.
    4. Ramcharran, Harri, 2002. "Oil production responses to price changes: an empirical application of the competitive model to OPEC and non-OPEC countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 97-106, March.
    5. Ahrens, W. Ashley & Sharma, Vijaya R., 1997. "Trends in Natural Resource Commodity Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 59-74, May.
    6. Horn, Manfred, 2004. "OPEC's optimal crude oil price," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 269-280, January.
    7. Chapman, Duane & Khanna, Neha, 1999. "World Oil: The Growing Case For International Policy," Working Papers 7232, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    8. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
    9. Robert K. Kaufmann, Stephane Dees, Pavlos Karadeloglou and Marcelo Sanchez, 2004. "Does OPEC Matter? An Econometric Analysis of Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 67-90.
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