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Does Oil Price Uncertainty Affect Energy Use?


  • Gerard H. Kuper
  • Daan P. van Soest


Theory predicts that the presence of fixed costs implies that the relationship between energy use and energy price changes is asymmetric, as the firmÕs output and investment decisions respond differently to energy price increases and decreases. The asymmetry is exacerbated if future energy prices are uncertain, but to date the empirical literature does not explicitly take uncertainty into account. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we develop a new measure of energy price uncertainty. Second, we apply this measure to explain energy use in fifteen OECD countries between 1978 and 1996. Our results support the theoretical prediction that energy price uncertainty affects the asymmetry and renders energy saving technologies less attractive.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerard H. Kuper & Daan P. van Soest, 2006. "Does Oil Price Uncertainty Affect Energy Use?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 55-78.
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2006v27-01-a03

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Babiker, Mustafa & Reilly, John M. & Jacoby, Henry D., 2000. "The Kyoto Protocol and developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 525-536, July.
    2. Paul M. Bernstein & W. David Montgomery & Thomas F. Rutherford & Gui-Fang Yang, 1999. "Effects of Restrictions on International Permit Trading: The MS-MRT Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 221-256.
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    5. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    6. Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2001. "The liability rules under international GHG emissions trading," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 501-508, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Duong T Le, 2015. "Ex-ante Determinants of Volatility in the Crude Oil Market," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13, January.
    2. Yang, Ming & Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom, 2008. "Evaluating the power investment options with uncertainty in climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1933-1950, July.
    3. repec:spr:eurase:v:7:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s40822-017-0079-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Yang, Ming & Nguyen, François & De T'Serclaes, Philippine & Buchner, Barbara, 2010. "Wind farm investment risks under uncertain CDM benefit in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1436-1447, March.
    5. Kasparian, Jérôme, 2009. "Contribution of crude oil price to households' budget: The weight of indirect energy use," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 111-114, January.
    6. Dobroschke, Stephan, 2012. "Energieeffizienzpotenziale und staatlicher Lenkungsbedarf," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 12-1, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    7. Chi, Junwook, 2016. "Long- and short-run asymmetric responses of motor-vehicle travel to fuel price variations: New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 126-134.
    8. Halova Wolfe, Marketa & Rosenman, Robert, 2014. "Bidirectional causality in oil and gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 325-331.
    9. Apergis, Nicholas & Lau, Marco Chi Keung, 2015. "Structural breaks and electricity prices: Further evidence on the role of climate policy uncertainties in the Australian electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 176-182.
    10. repec:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:315-327 is not listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General


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