Wind farm investment risks under uncertain CDM benefit in China
China has set an ambitious target to increase its wind power capacity by 35Â GW from 2007 to 2020. The country's hunger for clean power provides great opportunities for wind energy investors. However, risks from China's uncertain electricity market regulation and an uncertain energy policy framework, mainly due to uncertain Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) benefits, prevent foreign investors from investing in China's wind energy. The objectives of this paper are to: (1) quantify wind energy investment risk premiums in an uncertain international energy policy context and (2) evaluate the impact of uncertain CDM benefits on the net present values of wind power projects. With four scenarios, this study simulates possible prices of certified emissions reductions (CERs) from wind power projects. Project net present values (NPVs) have been calculated. The project risk premiums are drawn from different and uncertain CER prices. Our key findings show that uncertain CDM benefits will significantly affect the project NPVs. This paper concludes that the Chinese government needs revising its tariff incentives, most likely by introducing fixed feed-in tariffs (FITs), and re-examining its CDM-granting policy and its wind project tax rates, to facilitate wind power development and enable China to achieve its wind energy target.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Geoffrey Rothwell, 2006. "A Real Options Approach to Evaluating New Nuclear Power Plants," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 87-54.
- BRECHET, Thierry & GERMAIN, Marc & VAN STEENBERGHE, Vincent, 2004. "The Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol and the `low-hanging fruits' issue," CORE Discussion Papers 2004081, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
- Enzensberger, N. & Wietschel, M. & Rentz, O., 2002. "Policy instruments fostering wind energy projects--a multi-perspective evaluation approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 793-801, July.
- Michaelowa, Axel & Jusen, Asuka & Krause, Karsten & Grimm, Bernhard & Koch, Tobias, 2000. "CDM projects in China's energy supply and demand sectors - opportunities and barriers," HWWA Discussion Papers 90, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
- Laurikka, Harri, 2006. "Option value of gasification technology within an emissions trading scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3916-3928, December.
- Muller, Adrian, 2006.
"How to Make the Clean Development Mechanism Sustainable - The Potential of Rent Extraction,"
Working Papers in Economics
214, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
- Muller, Adrian, 2007. "How to make the clean development mechanism sustainable--The potential of rent extraction," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3203-3212, June.
- Lin, Tyrone T. & Ko, Chuan-Chuan & Yeh, Hsin-Ni, 2007. "Applying real options in investment decisions relating to environmental pollution," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2426-2432, April.
- Resnier, Martin & Wang, Can & Du, Pengfei & Chen, Jining, 2007. "The promotion of sustainable development in China through the optimization of a tax/subsidy plan among HFC and power generation CDM projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4529-4544, September.
- Gerard H. Kuper & Daan P. van Soest, 2006. "Does Oil Price Uncertainty Affect Energy Use?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 55-78.
- Lema, Adrian & Ruby, Kristian, 2007. "Between fragmented authoritarianism and policy coordination: Creating a Chinese market for wind energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 3879-3890, July.
- Lewis, Joanna I. & Wiser, Ryan H., 2007. "Fostering a renewable energy technology industry: An international comparison of wind industry policy support mechanisms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1844-1857, March.
- Michaelowa, Axel, 2005. "CDM: Current status and possibilities for reform," HWWI Research Papers 4-3, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
- Anger, Niels & Böhringer, Christoph & Moslener, Ulf, 2007. "Macroeconomic Impacts of the Clean Development Mechanism: The Role of Investment Barriers and Regulations," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-026, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Marreco, Juliana de Moraes & Carpio, Lucio Guido Tapia, 2006. "Flexibility valuation in the Brazilian power system: A real options approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3749-3756, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:3:p:1436-1447. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.