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Wind farm investment risks under uncertain CDM benefit in China

Author

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  • Yang, Ming
  • Nguyen, François
  • De T'Serclaes, Philippine
  • Buchner, Barbara

Abstract

China has set an ambitious target to increase its wind power capacity by 35Â GW from 2007 to 2020. The country's hunger for clean power provides great opportunities for wind energy investors. However, risks from China's uncertain electricity market regulation and an uncertain energy policy framework, mainly due to uncertain Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) benefits, prevent foreign investors from investing in China's wind energy. The objectives of this paper are to: (1) quantify wind energy investment risk premiums in an uncertain international energy policy context and (2) evaluate the impact of uncertain CDM benefits on the net present values of wind power projects. With four scenarios, this study simulates possible prices of certified emissions reductions (CERs) from wind power projects. Project net present values (NPVs) have been calculated. The project risk premiums are drawn from different and uncertain CER prices. Our key findings show that uncertain CDM benefits will significantly affect the project NPVs. This paper concludes that the Chinese government needs revising its tariff incentives, most likely by introducing fixed feed-in tariffs (FITs), and re-examining its CDM-granting policy and its wind project tax rates, to facilitate wind power development and enable China to achieve its wind energy target.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Ming & Nguyen, François & De T'Serclaes, Philippine & Buchner, Barbara, 2010. "Wind farm investment risks under uncertain CDM benefit in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1436-1447, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:3:p:1436-1447
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Xiaoli & Zhang, Sufang & Yang, Rui & Wang, Mei, 2012. "Constraints on the effective utilization of wind power in China: An illustration from the northeast China grid," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(7), pages 4508-4514.
    2. Zhao, Zhen-Yu & Li, Zhi-Wei & Xia, Bo, 2014. "The impact of the CDM (clean development mechanism) on the cost price of wind power electricity: A China study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 179-185.
    3. Zhou, Y. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H., 2015. "Planning sustainable electric-power system with carbon emission abatement through CDM under uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 350-364.
    4. Liu, Ximei & Zeng, Ming, 2017. "Renewable energy investment risk evaluation model based on system dynamics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 782-788.
    5. Petković, Dalibor & Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Kamsin, Amirrudin & Lee, Malrey & Anicic, Obrad & Nikolić, Vlastimir, 2016. "Survey of the most influential parameters on the wind farm net present value (NPV) by adaptive neuro-fuzzy approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1270-1278.
    6. Jin, Xin & Zhang, Zhaolong & Shi, Xiaoqiang & Ju, Wenbin, 2014. "A review on wind power industry and corresponding insurance market in China: Current status and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1069-1082.
    7. Tian Tang & David Popp, 2014. "The Learning Process and Technological Change in Wind Power: Evidence from China's CDM Wind Projects," NBER Working Papers 19921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Farrell, Niall & Donoghue, Cathal O’ & Morrissey, Karyn, 2015. "Quantifying the uncertainty of wave energy conversion device cost for policy appraisal: An Irish case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 62-77.
    9. Zhao, Xiaoli & Wang, Feng & Wang, Mei, 2012. "Large-scale utilization of wind power in China: Obstacles of conflict between market and planning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 222-232.
    10. Qing Pei & Lanlan Liu & David Zhang, 2013. "Carbon emission right as a new property right: rescue CDM developers in China from 2012," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 307-320, September.
    11. repec:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:278-286 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Tian Tang & David Popp, 2014. "The Learning Process and Technological Change in Wind Power: Evidence from China's CDM Wind Projects," CESifo Working Paper Series 4705, CESifo Group Munich.
    13. David G. Carmichael & Kjell A. Lea & Maria C. A. Balatbat, 2016. "The financial additionality and viability of CDM projects allowing for uncertainty," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 129-141, February.
    14. Gao, Xiaoxia & Yang, Hongxing & Lu, Lin, 2014. "Study on offshore wind power potential and wind farm optimization in Hong Kong," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 519-531.
    15. Xuemei Liu, 2016. "Why Has Wind Power Capacity Been Overinvested Under Uncertainty in China?," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 1-12, February.
    16. Gatzert, Nadine & Kosub, Thomas, 2016. "Risks and risk management of renewable energy projects: The case of onshore and offshore wind parks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 982-998.
    17. repec:eee:rensus:v:80:y:2017:i:c:p:180-196 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:eee:rensus:v:75:y:2017:i:c:p:918-926 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Liu, Xuemei, 2013. "The value of holding scarce wind resource—A cause of overinvestment in wind power capacity in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 97-100.
    20. Wu, Zhongqun & Sun, Hongxia & Du, Yihang, 2014. "A large amount of idle capacity under rapid expansion: Policy analysis on the dilemma of wind power utilization in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 271-277.
    21. Xiaogang Zhang & Dong Wang & Yuanhao Liu & Hongtao Yi, 2016. "Wind Power Development in China: An Assessment of Provincial Policies," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(8), pages 1-12, July.
    22. Lam, J.C.K. & Woo, C.K. & Kahrl, F. & Yu, W.K., 2013. "What moves wind energy development in China? Show me the money!," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 423-429.
    23. Zhao, Zhen-yu & Sun, Guang-zheng & Zuo, Jian & Zillante, George, 2013. "The impact of international forces on the Chinese wind power industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 131-141.
    24. Mo, Jian-Lei & Agnolucci, Paolo & Jiang, Mao-Rong & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The impact of Chinese carbon emission trading scheme (ETS) on low carbon energy (LCE) investment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 271-283.
    25. Gatzert, Nadine & Vogl, Nikolai, 2016. "Evaluating investments in renewable energy under policy risks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 238-252.

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