IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v38y2010i3p1436-1447.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wind farm investment risks under uncertain CDM benefit in China

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Ming
  • Nguyen, François
  • De T'Serclaes, Philippine
  • Buchner, Barbara

Abstract

China has set an ambitious target to increase its wind power capacity by 35Â GW from 2007 to 2020. The country's hunger for clean power provides great opportunities for wind energy investors. However, risks from China's uncertain electricity market regulation and an uncertain energy policy framework, mainly due to uncertain Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) benefits, prevent foreign investors from investing in China's wind energy. The objectives of this paper are to: (1) quantify wind energy investment risk premiums in an uncertain international energy policy context and (2) evaluate the impact of uncertain CDM benefits on the net present values of wind power projects. With four scenarios, this study simulates possible prices of certified emissions reductions (CERs) from wind power projects. Project net present values (NPVs) have been calculated. The project risk premiums are drawn from different and uncertain CER prices. Our key findings show that uncertain CDM benefits will significantly affect the project NPVs. This paper concludes that the Chinese government needs revising its tariff incentives, most likely by introducing fixed feed-in tariffs (FITs), and re-examining its CDM-granting policy and its wind project tax rates, to facilitate wind power development and enable China to achieve its wind energy target.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Ming & Nguyen, François & De T'Serclaes, Philippine & Buchner, Barbara, 2010. "Wind farm investment risks under uncertain CDM benefit in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1436-1447, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:3:p:1436-1447
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4215(09)00854-4
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lin, Tyrone T. & Ko, Chuan-Chuan & Yeh, Hsin-Ni, 2007. "Applying real options in investment decisions relating to environmental pollution," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2426-2432, April.
    2. Michaelowa, Axel, 2005. "CDM: Current status and possibilities for reform," HWWI Research Papers 4-3, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    3. Gerard H. Kuper & Daan P. van Soest, 2006. "Does Oil Price Uncertainty Affect Energy Use?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 27(1), pages 55-78, January.
    4. Geoffrey Rothwell, 2006. "A Real Options Approach to Evaluating New Nuclear Power Plants," The Energy Journal, , vol. 27(1), pages 37-54, January.
    5. Resnier, Martin & Wang, Can & Du, Pengfei & Chen, Jining, 2007. "The promotion of sustainable development in China through the optimization of a tax/subsidy plan among HFC and power generation CDM projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4529-4544, September.
    6. Lewis, Joanna I. & Wiser, Ryan H., 2007. "Fostering a renewable energy technology industry: An international comparison of wind industry policy support mechanisms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1844-1857, March.
    7. Michaelowa, Axel & Jusen, Asuka & Krause, Karsten & Grimm, Bernhard & Koch, Tobias, 2000. "CDM projects in China's energy supply and demand sectors – Opportunities and barriers," HWWA Discussion Papers 90, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    8. Lema, Adrian & Ruby, Kristian, 2007. "Between fragmented authoritarianism and policy coordination: Creating a Chinese market for wind energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 3879-3890, July.
    9. Muller, Adrian, 2007. "How to make the clean development mechanism sustainable--The potential of rent extraction," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3203-3212, June.
    10. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    11. Marreco, Juliana de Moraes & Carpio, Lucio Guido Tapia, 2006. "Flexibility valuation in the Brazilian power system: A real options approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3749-3756, December.
    12. Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Marnay, Chris & Wiser, Ryan H., 2007. "Real options valuation of US federal renewable energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 265-279, January.
    13. Enzensberger, N. & Wietschel, M. & Rentz, O., 2002. "Policy instruments fostering wind energy projects--a multi-perspective evaluation approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 793-801, July.
    14. Laurikka, Harri, 2006. "Option value of gasification technology within an emissions trading scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3916-3928, December.
    15. Anger, Niels & Böhringer, Christoph & Moslener, Ulf, 2007. "Macroeconomic Impacts of the Clean Development Mechanism: The Role of Investment Barriers and Regulations," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-026, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. BRECHET, Thierry & GERMAIN, Marc & VAN STEENBERGHE, Vincent, 2004. "The Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol and the `low-hanging fruits' issue," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2004081, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang, Ming & Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom, 2008. "Evaluating the power investment options with uncertainty in climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1933-1950, July.
    2. Dominik Kryzia & Michał Kopacz & Katarzyna Kryzia, 2020. "The Valuation of the Operational Flexibility of the Energy Investment Project Based on a Gas-Fired Power Plant," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, March.
    3. Apergis, Nicholas & Lau, Marco Chi Keung, 2015. "Structural breaks and electricity prices: Further evidence on the role of climate policy uncertainties in the Australian electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 176-182.
    4. Felipe Isaza Cuervo & Sergio Botero Boterob, 2014. "Aplicación de las opciones reales en la toma de decisiones en los mercados de electricidad," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.
    5. Lee, Shun-Chung & Shih, Li-Hsing, 2010. "Renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model -- The case of Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 67-78, September.
    6. Lee, Shun-Chung, 2011. "Using real option analysis for highly uncertain technology investments: The case of wind energy technology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4443-4450.
    7. Fernandes, Bartolomeu & Cunha, Jorge & Ferreira, Paula, 2011. "The use of real options approach in energy sector investments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4491-4497.
    8. Casper Agaton, 2017. "Coal, Renewable, or Nuclear? A Real Options Approach to Energy Investments in the Philippines," International Journal of Sustainable Energy and Environmental Research, Conscientia Beam, vol. 6(2), pages 50-62.
    9. Balibrea-Iniesta, José & Rodríguez-Monroy, Carlos & Núñez-Guerrero, Yilsy María, 2021. "Economic analysis of the German regulation for electrical generation projects from biogas applying the theory of real options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    10. Madlener, Reinhard & Stoverink, Simon, 2012. "Power plant investments in the Turkish electricity sector: A real options approach taking into account market liberalization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 124-134.
    11. Mostafaeipour, Ali, 2010. "Feasibility study of offshore wind turbine installation in Iran compared with the world," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(7), pages 1722-1743, September.
    12. Sahoo, Anshuman & Shrimali, Gireesh, 2013. "The effectiveness of domestic content criteria in India's Solar Mission," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1470-1480.
    13. Gorupec Natalia & Brehmer Nataliia & Tiberius Victor & Kraus Sascha, 2022. "Tackling uncertain future scenarios with real options: A review and research framework," The Irish Journal of Management, Sciendo, vol. 41(1), pages 69-88, July.
    14. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    15. Friebe, Christian A. & von Flotow, Paschen & Täube, Florian A., 2014. "Exploring technology diffusion in emerging markets – the role of public policy for wind energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 217-226.
    16. Lin, Boqiang & Wesseh, Presley K., 2013. "Valuing Chinese feed-in tariffs program for solar power generation: A real options analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 474-482.
    17. Cuervo, Felipe Isaza & Botero, Sergio Botero, 2016. "Wind power reliability valuation in a Hydro-Dominated power market: The Colombian case," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1359-1372.
    18. Cheng, Ching-Tsung & Lo, Shang-Lien & Lin, Tyrone T., 2011. "Applying real options analysis to assess cleaner energy development strategies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5929-5938, October.
    19. Siddiqui, Afzal & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2010. "How to proceed with competing alternative energy technologies: A real options analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 817-830, July.
    20. Barroso, Manuel Monjas & Iniesta, José Balibrea, 2014. "A valuation of wind power projects in Germany using real regulatory options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 422-433.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:3:p:1436-1447. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.