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Bidirectional causality in oil and gas markets

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  • Halova Wolfe, Marketa
  • Rosenman, Robert

Abstract

Do events in the natural gas market cause repercussions in the crude oil market? This paper studies linkages between the two markets using high-frequency, intraday oil and gas futures prices. By analyzing the effect of weekly oil and gas inventory announcements on price volatility, we show a bidirectional causal relationship. Both inventory gluts and shortages have a cross-commodity effect on price volatility not only for the next-month nearby futures contract but also for the following six months' contracts.

Suggested Citation

  • Halova Wolfe, Marketa & Rosenman, Robert, 2014. "Bidirectional causality in oil and gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 325-331.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:42:y:2014:i:c:p:325-331
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2013.12.010
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    1. José Carlos Vides & Julia Feria & Antonio A. Golpe & Juan Manuel Martín-Álvarez, 2024. "How do supply or demand shocks affect the US oil market?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, December.
    2. Feng, Gen-Fu & Wang, Quan-Jing & Chu, Yin & Wen, Jun & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "Does the shale gas boom change the natural gas price-production relationship? Evidence from the U.S. market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Baum, Christopher F. & Zerilli, Paola & Chen, Liyuan, 2021. "Stochastic volatility, jumps and leverage in energy and stock markets: Evidence from high frequency data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Fen Li & Zhehao Huang & Junhao Zhong & Khaldoon Albitar, 2020. "Do Tense Geopolitical Factors Drive Crude Oil Prices?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-20, August.
    5. Biresselioglu, Mehmet Efe & Yelkenci, Tezer, 2016. "Scrutinizing the causality relationships between prices, production and consumption of fossil fuels: A panel data approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 44-53.
    6. Stanislav Anatolyev & Sergei Seleznev & Veronika Selezneva, 2018. "Formation of Market Beliefs in the Oil Market," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp619, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    7. Wei, Zhaohao & Chai, Jian & Dong, Jichang & Lu, Quanying, 2022. "Understanding the linkage-dependence structure between oil and gas markets: A new perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    8. Caporin, Massimiliano & Fontini, Fulvio, 2017. "The long-run oil–natural gas price relationship and the shale gas revolution," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 511-519.
    9. Hong Miao & Sanjay Ramchander & Tianyang Wang & Jian Yang, 2018. "The impact of crude oil inventory announcements on prices: Evidence from derivatives markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 38-65, January.
    10. Olivier Rousse & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market," Working Papers hal-01460186, HAL.
    11. Ren, Xiaohang & Lu, Zudi & Cheng, Cheng & Shi, Yukun & Shen, Jian, 2019. "On dynamic linkages of the state natural gas markets in the USA: Evidence from an empirical spatio-temporal network quantile analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 234-252.
    12. Rousse, Olivier & Sévi, Benoît, "undated". "Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market," ESP: Energy Scenarios and Policy 249788, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    13. Girma T. Chala & Abd Rashid Abd Aziz & Ftwi Y. Hagos, 2018. "Natural Gas Engine Technologies: Challenges and Energy Sustainability Issue," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-44, October.
    14. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2017. "The relationship between regional natural gas markets and crude oil markets from a multi-scale nonlinear Granger causality perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 98-110.
    15. Sultan Alturki & Alexander Kurov, 2022. "Market inefficiencies surrounding energy announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 172-188, January.
    16. Kyritsis, Evangelos & Andersson, Jonas, 2019. "Causality in quantiles and dynamic relations in energy markets: (De)tails matter," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    17. Andreasson, Pierre & Bekiros, Stelios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2016. "Impact of speculation and economic uncertainty on commodity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 115-127.
    18. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Ben Omrane, Walid & Lazrak, Skander & Yan, Xusheng, 2020. "OPEC production decisions, macroeconomic news, and volatility in the Canadian currency and oil markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    19. Plante, Michael & Dhaliwal, Navi, 2017. "Inventory shocks and the oil–ethanol–grain price nexus," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 58-60.
    20. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Maitra, Debasish & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Oil, natural gas and BRICS stock markets: Evidence of systemic risks and co-movements in the time-frequency domain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    21. Caporin, Massimiliano & Costola, Michele, 2022. "Time-varying Granger causality tests in the energy markets: A study on the DCC-MGARCH Hong test," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    22. Stanislav Anatolyev & Sergei Seleznev & Veronika Selezneva, 2021. "How does the financial market update beliefs about the real economy? Evidence from the oil market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 938-961, November.
    23. Ye, Shiyu & Karali, Berna, 2016. "The informational content of inventory announcements: Intraday evidence from crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 349-364.
    24. Ji, Qiang & Geng, Jiang-Bo & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "Information spillovers and connectedness networks in the oil and gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 71-84.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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