IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/san/cdmacp/0807.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Implications of a Key Currency

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew Canzoneri

    ()

  • Robert Cumby

    ()

Abstract

What are the macroeconomic consequences of the dominant role of the dollar in the international monetary system? Here, we present a calibrated two country model in which exports are invoiced in the key currency, and government bonds denominated in the key currency are held internationally to facilitate trade. Domestic government bonds and money are held in each country to facilitate domestic transactions. Our model generates deviations from uncovered interest parity that are as volatile as some empirical estimates, but much too small by others. Our model also speaks to some other empirical anomalies, such as the Backus - Smith puzzle. Shocks affecting asset supplies – such as bond financed tax cuts, and open market operations – have large effects in our model because they generate non-Ricardian changes in household wealth. Generally, shocks emanating from the key currency country do more to destabilize the world economy than equal sized shocks coming from the other country. Similarly, monetary and fiscal policy innovations in the key currency country are more potent than those in the other country. On the other hand, the key currency country is more vulnerable to financial market turbulence, such as a sell off of key currency bonds, which can lower consumption dramatically.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby, 2008. " Macroeconomic Implications of a Key Currency," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0807, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:san:cdmacp:0807
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/CDMA/papers/cp0807.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Wickens, 2008. "The Centralized Economy, from Macroeconomic Theory: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach," Introductory Chapters,in: Macroeconomic Theory: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach Princeton University Press.
    2. Annette Vissing-Jorgensen & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2008. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," 2008 Meeting Papers 713, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Michael Wickens, 2008. "Imperfectly Flexible Prices, from Macroeconomic Theory: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach," Introductory Chapters,in: Macroeconomic Theory: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach Princeton University Press.
    4. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is it an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(1), pages 139-161.
    5. Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November.
    6. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1998. "Private and Public Supply of Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 1-40, February.
    7. Goldberg, Linda & Tille, Cédric, 2009. "Macroeconomic interdependence and the international role of the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 990-1003, October.
    8. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2014. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 663-713.
    9. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad T., 2007. "Euler equations and money market interest rates: A challenge for monetary policy models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1863-1881, October.
    10. Ohanian, Lee E & Stockman, Alan C & Kilian, Lutz, 1995. "The Effects of Real and Monetary Shocks in a Business Cycle Model with Some Sticky Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1209-1234, November.
    11. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    12. Michael Wickens, 2008. "Asset Pricing and Macroeconomics, from Macroeconomic Theory: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach," Introductory Chapters,in: Macroeconomic Theory: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach Princeton University Press.
    13. Kollmann, Robert, 2002. "Monetary policy rules in the open economy: effects on welfare and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 989-1015, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:san:cdmacp:0807. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (the School of Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cdstauk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.