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Exchange rate forecasting and the performance of currency portfolios

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  • Jesus Crespo Cuaresma
  • Ines Fortin
  • Jaroslava Hlouskova

Abstract

We examine the potential gains of using exchange rate forecast models and forecast combination methods in the management of currency portfolios for three exchange rates: the euro versus the US dollar, the British pound, and the Japanese yen. We use a battery of econometric specifications to evaluate whether optimal currency portfolios implied by trading strategies based on exchange rate forecasts outperform single currencies and the equally weighted portfolio. We assess the differences in profitability of optimal currency portfolios for different types of investor preferences, two trading strategies, mean squared error‐based composite forecasts, and different forecast horizons. Our results indicate that there are clear benefits of integrating exchange rate forecasts from state‐of‐the‐art econometric models in currency portfolios. These benefits vary across investor preferences and prediction horizons but are rather similar across trading strategies.

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  • Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Ines Fortin & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2018. "Exchange rate forecasting and the performance of currency portfolios," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 519-540, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:37:y:2018:i:5:p:519-540
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2518
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    4. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesus & Fortin, Ines & Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Obersteiner, Michael, 2021. "Regime-dependent commodity price dynamics: A predictive analysis," IHS Working Paper Series 28, Institute for Advanced Studies.

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    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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