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Assessing forecast performance

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Abstract

Assessing the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts is critical to identifying opportunities to improve macroeconomic advice. For example, revealing and then removing bias – from either persistently under- or over-estimating economic activity – would allow a policymaker to better assess the state of the economy, improving monetary (and fiscal) policy. Policy might also be improved by incorporating the beliefs of forecasters with a good track record.

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  • Kirdan Lees, 2016. "Assessing forecast performance," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 79, pages 1-19., June.
  • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbbul:jun2016:10
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    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Bulletins/2016/2016jun79-10.pdf
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    1. Felipe Labbe & Hamish Pepper, 2009. "Assessing recent external forecasts," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 72, pages 19-25, December.
    2. Andrew Bauer & Robert A. Eisenbeis & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2003. "Forecast evaluation with cross-sectional data: The Blue Chip Surveys," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 17-31.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Richardson, 2016. "Behind the scenes of an OCR decision in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 79, pages 1-15, July.
    2. repec:nzb:nzbbul:jul2016:07 is not listed on IDEAS

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