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Pakistan: Breaking Out of Stagflation into Sustained Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Rashid Amjad Chaudhry

    () (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (P.I.D.E), Islamabad, Pakistan)

  • Musleh ud Din

    () (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (P.I.D.E), Islamabad, Pakistan)

  • Abdul Qayyum

    () (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (P.I.D.E), Islamabad, Pakistan)

Abstract

This paper proposes that the underlying cause of the macroeconomic problems facing Pakistan today are a series of supply shocks which have constrained output growth. It is argued that while the current debate has solely focused on government expenditures and revenues, it is critical to also address the acute energy shortages which is constraining supply. The paper goes on to present four recommendations for breaking out of the present stagflation: (i) prudent macroeconomic management, (ii) reviving the role of the government in development while restoring fiscal balance, (iii) loosening monetary policy in order to spur the private sector, and (iv) improving social safety nets.

Suggested Citation

  • Rashid Amjad Chaudhry & Musleh ud Din & Abdul Qayyum, 2011. "Pakistan: Breaking Out of Stagflation into Sustained Growth," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(Special E), pages 13-30, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:16:y:2011:i:sp:p:13-30
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Muhammad Abdul Qayyum, 2007. "Trade, Financial and Growth Nexus in Pakistan," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 6, pages 1-24, December.
    2. Amjad, Rashid & Din, Musleh ud, 2010. "Economic and social impact of global financial crisis: implications for macroeconomic and development policies in South Asia," MPRA Paper 38150, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Abdul Qayyum & Sajawal Khan & Idrees Khawaja, 2005. "Interest Rate Pass-through in Pakistan: Evidence from Transfer Function Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 975-1001.
    4. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Brunner, Karl & Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H., 1980. "Stagflation, persistent unemployment and the permanence of economic shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 467-492, October.
    6. repec:pid:wpaper:2010:2 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Global Food and Oil Price Shocks to the Pakistan Economy: A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 491-511.
    2. Nazia Nazeer & Rajah Rasiah, 2016. "Explaining Pakistan’s Premature Deindustrialization," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 21(Special E), pages 351-368, September.
    3. Amjad, Rashid & Din, Musleh ud, 2014. "Pakistan Economy: Caught in a Maelstrom," MPRA Paper 61668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Rashid Amjad, 2012. "Stagflation, the Labor Market Impact, and the Poverty Puzzle in Pakistan: A Preliminary Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 17(Special E), pages 51-71, September.
    5. Muhammad Azam & Nasir Iqbal & Muhammad Tayyab, 2014. "Zakat and Economic Development: Micro and Macro Level Evidence from Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 3(2), pages 85-95, June.
    6. Inayat U. Mangla & Muslehud Din, 2015. "The Impact of the Macroeconomic Environment on Pakistan’s Manufacturing Sector," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 20(Special E), pages 241-260, September.
    7. repec:ilo:ilowps:487475 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Sayeed, Asad. & Abbasi, Zubair Faisal., 2015. "The role of central banks in supporting economic growth and creation of productive employment : the case of Pakistan," ILO Working Papers 994874753402676, International Labour Organization.
    9. Irfan ul Haque & Sahar Amjad, 2012. "Toward a Heterodox Approach: Reconciling Stabilization and Economic Growth in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 17(Special E), pages 1-32, September.
    10. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2012. "Modelling Trade, Investment, Growth and Liberalisation: Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 187-208.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Supply Shock; Pakistan.;

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • P44 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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