Stagflation, the Labor Market Impact, and the Poverty Puzzle in Pakistan: A Preliminary Analysis
This article discusses the impact of the current stagflation in Pakistan on the labor market and poverty. The paper presents a preliminary explanation of why the labor market and poverty impact of the current stagflation may be far smaller than projected in recent studies, especially for the rural economy. The main conclusions that emerge are that (1) The overwhelming expected negative impact of low economic growth, high double-digit inflation, and crippling energy shortages on poverty and the labor market appear to have been cushioned by the large increase in remittances, rising wages in agriculture and services, and social safety nets; (2) there is, however, no reason for complacency since over 20 million people live in absolute poverty and that the economy remains in deep stagflation, (3) the PSLM (HIES) 2010/11 data should be made publicly available so that it can be subject to more critical analysis and (4) studies on poverty should be based on a close integration of macro-sectoral–micro-factors to fully capture the underlying “poverty dynamics.”
|Date of creation:||Sep 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- G. M. Arif & Shujaat Farooq, 2012. "Rural Poverty Dynamics in Pakistan: Evidence from Three Waves of the Panel Survey," Poverty and Social Dynamics Paper Series 2012:02, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
- Rashid Amjad Chaudhry & Musleh ud Din & Abdul Qayyum, 2011.
"Pakistan: Breaking Out of Stagflation into Sustained Growth,"
Lahore Journal of Economics,
Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(Special E), pages 13-30, September.
- Amjad, Rashid & Din, Musleh-ud & Qayyum, Abdul, 2011. "Pakistan: Breaking out of stagflation into sustained growth," MPRA Paper 33812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- François Bourguignon & Maurizio Bussolo & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2008. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution : Macro-Micro Evaluation Techniques and Tools," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6586.
- Rashid Amjad & G. M. Arif & M. Irfan, 2012. "Preliminary Study: Explaining the Ten-fold Increase in Remittances to Pakistan 2001-2012," PIDE-Working Papers 2012:86, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
- Amjad, Rashid, 2010. "Remittances and poverty in Pakistan: a note," MPRA Paper 38297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Rashid Amjad & A.R. Kemal, 1997. "Macroeconomic Policies and their Impact on Poverty Alleviation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 39-68.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41976. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.