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Wie entsteht Stagflation?

  • Berthold, Norbert
  • Gründler, Klaus
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    Der Beitrag diskutiert die Ursachen von Stagflation. Hierfür werden zunächst drei Kennzahlen abgeleitet, welche das Auftreten und die Stärke der Stagflation in der Weltwirtschaft und auf Länderebene abbilden. Im Anschluss wird anhand einer Reihe empirischer Schätzungen überprüft, welche Größen die Stagflationsmaße beeinflussen. Es stellt sich heraus, dass der Ölpreis eine ambivalente Wirkung entfaltet und dass seine Bedeutung im Zeitverlauf abnimmt. Während die Arbeitsproduktivität die Wahrscheinlichkeit und die Stärke der Stagflation über die Zeit hinweg relativ robust reduziert, hat sich die Geldpolitik seit Beginn der 1990er Jahre mehr und mehr als Hauptquelle stagflationärer Perioden herauskristallisiert. Damit stellt Stagflation heute kein unüberwindbares Problem mehr für die Wirtschaftspolitik dar. Dies bestätigt auch die rückläufige Persistenz im Auftreten von Stagflation. Insgesamt ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass Stagflation entsteht, in den letzten Jahrzehnten zurückgegangen.

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    Paper provided by Julius Maximilian University of Würzburg, Chair of Economic Order and Social Policy in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 126.

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    Date of creation: 2014
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewwb:126
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    1. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
    3. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. World Bank, 2013. "World Development Indicators 2013," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13191, September.
    5. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
    6. Robert J. Gordon, 1975. "Alternative Responses of Policy to External Supply Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 183-206.
    7. Robert M. Solow, 1980. "What to Do (Macroeconomically) When OPEC Comes," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 249-267 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Nelson, E., 1998. "Sluggish inflation and optimizing models of the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 303-322, July.
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