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The determinants of stagflation in a panel of countries

  • Berthold, Norbert
  • Gründler, Klaus
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    This paper explores the determinants of stagflation. Three measures are proposed that gauge both the occurrence and the strength of stagflation. We investigate the empirical determinants of these measures, accounting for a range of theoretical hypotheses that have been discussed since the mid-1970s. The results confirm the ambiguity in the influence of oil, although we find clear evidence that adverse supply-shocks enhance the probability and the magnitude of stagflation. However, while stagflation was oil-induced during the 1970s and 1980s, its occurrence in recent decades is strongly affected by monetary policy and labor productivity, indicating a paradigm shift in policy implications. The inevitable policy dilemma, suggested by the empirical persistence of stagflation, may thus be vincible. Yet, while stagflation was more severe during the 1970s and the 1980s, the likelihood of its recurrence turns out to be higher than often thought.

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    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/88629/1/DP_117__neue_Version_.pdf
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    Paper provided by Julius Maximilian University of Würzburg, Chair of Economic Order and Social Policy in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 117 [rev.].

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewwb:117r
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    1. Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Erceg & Martin Bodenstein, 2008. "Oil Shocks and External Adjustment," 2008 Meeting Papers 945, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, June.
    4. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Causes and consequences of the oil shock of 2007–08," CQER Working Paper 2009-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    6. William H. Branson & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1979. "International Adjustment with Wage Rigidity," NBER Working Papers 0406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Lutz Kilian & Bruce Hicks, 2013. "Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 385-394, 08.
    8. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
    9. Joseph Hilbe, 1994. "Negative binomial regression," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(18).
    10. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Stagflation in the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 293-318, June.
    11. Cameron, A.C. & Windmeijer, F.A.G., 1993. "R-Squared Measures for Count Data Regression Models with Applications to Health Care Utilization," Papers 93-24, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
    12. Cameron, A Colin & Trivedi, Pravin K, 1986. "Econometric Models Based on Count Data: Comparisons and Applications of Some Estimators and Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 29-53, January.
    13. Cubitt, Robin P, 1997. " Stagflationary Bias and the Interaction of Monetary Policy and Wages in a Unionized Economy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 93(1-2), pages 165-78, October.
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