IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/cesptp/halshs-01151642.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effects of Oil Price Shocks in a New-Keynesian Framework with Capital Accumulation

Author

Listed:
  • Verónica Acurio Vásconez

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Gaël Giraud

    () (PSE - Paris School of Economics, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Florent Mc Isaac

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Ngoc-Sang Pham

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne)

Abstract

The economic implications of oil price shocks have been extensively studied since the 1970s'. Despite this huge literature, no dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model was available that captures two well-known stylized facts: 1) the stagflationary impact of an oil price shock, together with 2) the influence of the energy productivity of capital on the depth and length of this impact. We build, estimate and simulate a New-Keynesian model with capital accumulation, which takes the case of an economy where oil is imported from abroad, and where these stylized facts can be accounted for. Moreover, the Bayesian estimation of the model on the US economy (1984-2007) suggests that the output elasticity of oil might have been above 10%, stressing the role of oil use in US growth at this time. Finally, our simulations confirm that an increase in energy efficiency significantly attenuates the effects of an oil shock —a possible explanation of why the third oil shock (1999-2008) did not have the same macro-economic impact as the first two ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Verónica Acurio Vásconez & Gaël Giraud & Florent Mc Isaac & Ngoc-Sang Pham, 2014. "The Effects of Oil Price Shocks in a New-Keynesian Framework with Capital Accumulation," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01151642, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01151642
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01151642
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01151642/document
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Marianna Riggi, 2013. "WHY ARE THE 2000s SO DIFFERENT FROM THE 1970s? A STRUCTURAL INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(5), pages 1032-1052, October.
    2. Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2013. "ADB Accountability Mechanism 2012 Annual Report," ADB Reports RPT125284-2, Asian Development Bank (ADB), revised 24 Apr 2013.
    3. Iskrev, Nikolay, 2010. "Local identification in DSGE models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 189-202, March.
    4. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
    5. World Bank, 2013. "The World Bank Annual Report 2013," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 16091, December.
    6. Vadim Khramov, 2012. "Assessing Dsge Models with Capital Accumulation and Indeterminacy," IMF Working Papers 12/83, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2012. "Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction: Annual Report 2010," ADB Reports RPT124251, Asian Development Bank (ADB), revised 31 Oct 2013.
    8. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2012. "The Great Shift: Macroeconomic projections for the world economy at the 2050 horizon," Working Papers 2012-03, CEPII research center.
    9. Canova, Fabio & Sala, Luca, 2009. "Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 431-449, May.
    10. Dehez, Pierre & Dreze, Jacques, 1988. "Competitive equilibria with quantity-taking producers and increasing returns to scale," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2-3), pages 209-230, April.
    11. GIRAUD, Gaël, 2000. "An algebraic index theorem for non-smooth economies," CORE Discussion Papers 2000016, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    12. Cornet, Bernard, 1988. "General equilibrium theory and increasing returns : Presentation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2-3), pages 103-118, April.
    13. Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2012. "Asian Development Bank–Japan Scholarship Program: Annual Report 2011," ADB Reports RPS124997, Asian Development Bank (ADB), revised 05 Dec 2013.
    14. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
    15. Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2013. "ADB-Japan Scholarship Program Annual Report 2012," ADB Reports RPS136100, Asian Development Bank (ADB), revised 05 Dec 2013.
    16. Paul A. Samuelson, 1966. "A Summing Up," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 568-583.
    17. Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2012. "Compliance Review Panel 2011 Annual Report," ADB Reports RPS124873, Asian Development Bank (ADB), revised 04 Apr 2013.
    18. Browning, Martin & Hansen, Lars Peter & Heckman, James J., 1999. "Micro data and general equilibrium models," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 543-633 Elsevier.
    19. Marco Ratto, 2008. "Analysing DSGE Models with Global Sensitivity Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 115-139, March.
    20. Lindenberger, Dietmar & Kümmel, Reiner, 2011. "Energy and the state of nations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 6010-6018.
    21. Hurwicz, Leonid & Reiter, Stanley, 1973. "On the Boundedness of the Feasible Set Without Convexity Assumptions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(3), pages 580-586, October.
    22. Andrle, Michal, 2010. "A note on identification patterns in DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1235, European Central Bank.
    23. Bonnisseau, Jean-Marc & Cornet, Bernard, 1990. "Existence of Marginal Cost Pricing Equilibria in Economies with Several Nonconvex Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 661-682, May.
    24. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    25. Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2012. "Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction Annual Report 2011," ADB Reports RPT125026, Asian Development Bank (ADB), revised 31 Oct 2013.
    26. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    27. Dehez, Pierre & Dreze, Jacques, 1988. "Distributive production sets and equilibria with increasing returns," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2-3), pages 231-248, April.
    28. Lindenberger, Dietmar & Kuemmel, Rainer, 2011. "Energy and the State of Nations," EWI Working Papers 2011-11, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    29. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    30. Ayres, Robert & Voudouris, Vlasios, 2014. "The economic growth enigma: Capital, labour and useful energy?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 16-28.
    31. Bonnisseau, Jean-Marc & Cornet, Bernard, 1990. "Existence of Marginal Cost Pricing Equilibria: The Nonsmooth Case," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(3), pages 685-708, August.
    32. Marco Ratto & Andrea Pagano, 2010. "Using recursive algorithms for the efficient identification of smoothing spline ANOVA models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 94(4), pages 367-388, December.
    33. Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2011. "Asian Development Bank–Japan Scholarship Program: Annual Report 2010," ADB Reports RPS114136, Asian Development Bank (ADB), revised 13 Nov 2013.
    34. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    35. Samuelson, Paul A, 1979. "Paul Douglas's Measurement of Production Functions and Marginal Productivities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 923-939, October.
    36. Odran Bonnet & Pierre-Henri Bono & Guillaume Chapelle & Etienne Wasmer, 2014. "Does housing capital contribute to inequality? A comment on Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the 21st Century," Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers 2014-07, Sciences Po Departement of Economics.
    37. Beato, Paulina & Mas-Colell, Andreu, 1985. "On marginal cost pricing with given tax-subsidy rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 356-365, December.
    38. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    39. Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2013. "Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction Annual Report 2012," ADB Reports RPT136108, Asian Development Bank (ADB), revised 09 Dec 2013.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Verónica Acurio Vásconez, 2015. "What if oil is less substitutable? A New-Keynesian Model with Oil, Price and Wage Stickiness including Capital Accumulation," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15041, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    2. Verónica Acurio Vásconez, 2015. "Oil and Unemployment in a New-Keynesian Model," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15043, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    3. Fouquet, Roger, 2016. "Lessons from energy history for climate policy: technological change, demand and economic development," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67785, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Francesca Rondina, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price Changes in a New Keynesian Model of the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 1709E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    New-Keynesian model; DSGE; oil; capital accumulation; stagflation; energy productivity; productivité énergétique; modèle néo-keynesien; équilibre général dynamique stochastique; pétrole; accumulation du capital;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01151642. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.