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Sometimes it helps: the evolving predictive power of spreads on GDP dynamics

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  • Nicoletti, Giulio
  • Passaro, Raffaele

Abstract

We investigate the predictive content of credit and government interest spreads with respect to the Italian GDP growth. Our analysis with Dynamic Model Averaging identifies when interest spreads were more useful predictors of economic activity: these periods are not limited to the Great Recession. For credit spreads we gather information from both bank loans and corporate bonds and we compare their predictive role over time and over different forecasting horizons. JEL Classification: C52, E37

Suggested Citation

  • Nicoletti, Giulio & Passaro, Raffaele, 2012. "Sometimes it helps: the evolving predictive power of spreads on GDP dynamics," Working Paper Series 1447, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121447
    Note: 1874455
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1447.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Rita Fradique Lourenço & Robert Hill, 2020. "House price forecasting and uncertainty: Examining Portugal and Spain," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Le Ha Thu & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez, 2021. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables in Emerging Economies: An Application to Vietnam," GRIPS Discussion Papers 21-03, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    3. Miguel Belmonte & Gary Koop, 2014. "Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time-Varying Parameter Regression Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Bayesian Model Comparison, volume 34, pages 45-69, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    4. Schumacher, Christian, 2014. "MIDAS regressions with time-varying parameters: An application to corporate bond spreads and GDP in the Euro area," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100289, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Thu, Le Ha & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto, 2021. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables in emerging economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Babalos, Vassilios & Stavroyiannis, Stavros, 2017. "Modelling correlation dynamics of EMU sovereign debt markets during the recent turmoil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1021-1029.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian econometrics; GDP forecasting; model averaging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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