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Learning and price volatility in duopoly models of resource depletion

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  • Ellison, Martin
  • Scott, Andrew

Abstract

The combination of learning and depletion in non-renewable resource markets adds significant volatility to commodity prices. The market consists of a small number of suppliers who make depletion plans based on their perceptions of how sensitive price is to supply. Learning leads to changes in these perceptions and hence the revision of depletion plans, which can have a dramatic effect on market supply and price. Firstly, price trends upwards faster than the rate of time preference as the non-renewable resource approaches exhaustion. Secondly, there are frequent escape episodes in which price rises rapidly before gradually falling back. The striking volatility and nonstationarity in commodity prices that results has parallels in oil price data.

Suggested Citation

  • Ellison, Martin & Scott, Andrew, 2013. "Learning and price volatility in duopoly models of resource depletion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 806-820.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:60:y:2013:i:7:p:806-820 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2013.06.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Batlome Janjgava & Sergey Slobodyan, 2011. "Duopoly Competition, Escape Dynamics and Non-cooperative Collusion," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp445, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity prices; Depletion; Escape dynamics; Learning; Non-renewable resources;

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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