IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cep/cepdps/dp0135.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Adaptive Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • George W. Evans
  • Seppo Honkapohja

Abstract

Standard linear macroeconomic models generate business cycles around a unique equilibrium through random productivity or preference shocks. Dynamic nonlinear models with multiple equilibria have the potential for endogenous fluctuations without exogenous shocks. This paper combines both approaches in a nonlinear model with multiple steady states due to a production externality. In the absence of policy changes, the driving forces generating fluctuations are exogenous random productivity shocks: without these shocks the economy would converge to a nonstochastic steady state. However, because there are multiple steady states, large productivity shocks of the right sign can shift the economy between high and low level stochastic steady states, providing an additional endogenous source of fluctuations. In this setting macroeconomic policy exhibits hysteresis (irreversibilities), and policy can be used to eliminate endogenous fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 1993. "Adaptive Forecasts," CEP Discussion Papers dp0135, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0135
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Begg & Richard Portes, 1993. "Enterprise debt and economic transformation (Financial restructuring of the state sector in Central and Eastern Europe)," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 1(1), pages 116-117, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Blasques & Falk Bräuning & Iman van Lelyveld, 2015. "A dynamic network model of the unsecured interbank lending market," BIS Working Papers 491, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Ferrero, Giuseppe, 2007. "Monetary policy, learning and the speed of convergence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 3006-3041, September.
    3. Ellison, Martin & Scott, Andrew, 2013. "Learning and price volatility in duopoly models of resource depletion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 806-820.
    4. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076 Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Waters, George A., 2012. "Careful price level targeting," Research Discussion Papers 30/2012, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/series.asp?prog=CEP .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.