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Shocking Escapes

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  • Bruce McGough

Abstract

Sargent's (1999) model of inflation is amended to include real oil prices and used to study the impact of exogenous supply shocks on the inflation time-series. We analyse whether these shocks can trigger escape-like episodes. We consider unobserved permanent shocks to the natural rate of unemployment and observed permanent shocks to the mean real oil price. Favourable shocks to unemployment decrease the time to first escape; that is, escapes tend to occur much sooner in the presence of these shocks. Shocks to the mean real oil price cause the economy to move quickly to its new equilibrium. Copyright 2006 Royal Economic Society.
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  • Bruce McGough, 2003. "Shocking Escapes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 294, Society for Computational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf3:294
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anderson, Evan W. & McGrattan, Ellen R. & Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1996. "Mechanics of forming and estimating dynamic linear economies," Handbook of Computational Economics,in: H. M. Amman & D. A. Kendrick & J. Rust (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-252 Elsevier.
    2. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2009. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(2), pages 211-256, April.
    3. Song Chen, 2000. "Probability Density Function Estimation Using Gamma Kernels," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 52(3), pages 471-480, September.
    4. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, . "Computational Economics," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number comp1, March.
    5. Williams, Noah, 2004. "Small noise asymptotics for a stochastic growth model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 271-298, December.
    6. In-Koo Cho & Noah Williams & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Escaping Nash Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40.
    7. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. William Branch & George W. Evans, 2007. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), pages 207-237, April.
    2. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2013. "Policy change and learning in the RBC model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1947-1971.
    3. Ellison, Martin & Yates, Tony, 2007. "Escaping Nash and Volatile Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6483, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Ellison, Martin & Scott, Andrew, 2013. "Learning and price volatility in duopoly models of resource depletion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 806-820.
    5. Sohrab Rafiq, 2014. "What Do Energy Prices Tell Us About UK Inflation?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 81(322), pages 293-310, April.
    6. Federico di Pace & Kaushik Mitra & Shoujian Zhang, 2014. "Adaptive Learning and Labour Market Dynamics," CDMA Working Paper Series 201408, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    7. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2011. "Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 159-191, July.
    8. Alina Barnett & Martin Ellison, 2013. "Learning by Disinflating," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 731-746, June.
    9. Branch, William A., 2016. "Imperfect knowledge, liquidity and bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 17-42.
    10. Martin Ellison & Liam Graham & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Strong Contagion with Weak Spillovers," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), pages 263-283, April.
    11. Christopher G. Gibbs, 2017. "Forecast combination, non-linear dynamics, and the macroeconomy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(3), pages 653-686, March.
    12. Kolyuzhnov, Dmitri & Bogomolova, Anna & Slobodyan, Sergey, 2014. "Escape dynamics: A continuous-time approximation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 161-183.
    13. Chakraborty, Avik & Evans, George W., 2008. "Can perpetual learning explain the forward-premium puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 477-490, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Supply Shocks; Adaptive Learning; Self-Confirming Equilibrium; Mean Dynamics; Escape Route;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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