Strong Contagion with Weak Spillovers
In this Paper, we develop a model which explains why events in one market may trigger similar events in other markets, even though at first sight the markets appear to be only weakly related. We allow for multiple equilibria and learning dynamics in each market, and show that a jump between equilibria in one market is contagious because it more than doubles the probability of a similar jump in another market. We claim that contagion is strong since equilibrium jumps become highly synchronized across markets. Spillovers are weak because the instantaneous spillover of events from one market to another is small. To illustrate our result, we demonstrate how a currency crisis may be contagious with only weak links between countries. Other examples where weak spillovers would create strong contagion are various models of monetary policy, imperfect competition and endogenous growth.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|Date of creation:||03 Sep 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.essex.ac.uk/afm/mmf/index.html|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bullard, James & Cho, In-Koo, 2005.
"Escapist policy rules,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1841-1865, November.
- Giorgio Primiceri, 2005. "Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policymakers' Beliefs and US Postwar Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 11147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- In-Koo Cho & Kenneth Kasa, 2003.
"Learning Dynamics and Endogenous Currency Crises,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2003
132, Society for Computational Economics.
- In-Koo Cho & Noah Williams & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002.
"Escaping Nash Inflation,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40.
- Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006.
"The conquest of South American inflation,"
2006-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Kenneth Kasa, 2004.
"Learning, Large Deviations, And Recurrent Currency Crises,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 141-173, 02.
- Kenneth Kasa, 2000. "Learning, large deviations, and recurrent currency crises," Working Paper Series 2000-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 1999.
"A Simple Model of Monetary Pollicy and Currency Crises,"
99.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
- Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2000. "A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 728-738, May.
- Philippe AGHION & Philippe BACCHETTA & Abhijit BANERJEE, 1999. "A Simple Model of Monetary Policy and Currency Crises," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9914, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- Bruce McGough, 2006.
Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 507-528, 04.
- Masson, Paul, 1999. "Contagion:: macroeconomic models with multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 587-602, August.
- William Poole, 2002.
49, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Gerali, Andrea & Lippi, Francesco, 2001.
"On the 'Conquest' of Inflation,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3101, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2002.
"Avoiding Nash inflation: Bayesian and robust responses to model uncertainty,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2002-9, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Robert Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2004. "Avoiding Nash Inflation: Bayesian and Robus Responses to Model Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(4), pages 869-899, October.
- Williams, Noah, 2004.
"Small noise asymptotics for a stochastic growth model,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 271-298, December.
- Noah Williams, 2003. "Small Noise Asymptotics for a Stochastic Growth Model," NBER Working Papers 10194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Noah Williams, 2003. "Small Noise Asymptotics for a Stochastic Growth Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 262, Society for Computational Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc05:91. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.