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Strong Contagion with Weak Spillovers

  • Martin Ellison

    (University of Warwick and CEPR)

  • Liam Graham

    (University of Warwick)

  • Jouka Vilmunen

    (Bank of Finland)

In this paper, we develop a model which explains why events in one market may trigger similar events in other markets, even though at first sight the markets appear to be only weakly related. We allow for multiple equilibria and learning dynamics in each market, and show that a jump between equilibria in one market is contagious because it more than doubles the probability of a similar jump in another market. We claim that contagion is strong since equilibrium jumps become highly synchronised across markets. Spillovers are weak because the instantaneous spillover of events from one market to another is small. To illustrate our result, we demonstrate how a currency crisis may be contagious with only weak links between countries. Other examples where weak spillovers would create strong contagion are various models of monetary policy, imperfect competition and endogenous growth

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Paper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 with number 91.

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Date of creation: 03 Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc05:91
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.essex.ac.uk/afm/mmf/index.html

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  1. Kenneth Kasa, 2004. "Learning, Large Deviations, And Recurrent Currency Crises," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 141-173, 02.
  2. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2000. "A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 728-738, May.
  3. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2009. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(2), pages 211-256, 04.
  4. Bullard, James & Cho, In-Koo, 2003. "Escapist policy rules," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/38, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  5. William Poole, 2002. "Flation," Speech 49, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • William Poole & Robert H. Rasche, 2002. "Flation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 1-6.
  6. Bruce McGough, 2006. "Shocking Escapes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 507-528, 04.
  7. Masson, Paul, 1999. "Contagion:: macroeconomic models with multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 587-602, August.
  8. Robert Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2004. "Avoiding Nash Inflation: Bayesian and Robus Responses to Model Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(4), pages 869-899, October.
  9. Cho, In-Koo & Williams, Noah & Sargent, Thomas J, 2002. "Escaping Nash Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40, January.
  10. Andrea Gerali & Francesco Lippi, 2002. "On the 'conquest' of inflation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 444, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  11. In-Koo Cho & Kenneth Kasa, 2003. "Learning Dynamics and Endogenous Currency Crises," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 132, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Noah Williams, 2003. "Small Noise Asymptotics for a Stochastic Growth Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 262, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Giorgio Primiceri, 2005. "Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policymakers' Beliefs and US Postwar Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 11147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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