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Adaptive learning and multiple equilibria in a natural rate monetary model with unemployment persistence

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  • Anssi Rantala

    (Pellervo Economic Research Institute)

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that the adaptive learning approach to modelling private sector expectations can be used as an equilibriumselection mechanism in a natural-rate monetary model with unemployment persistence. In particular, it is shown that only one of the two rational expectations equilibria is stable under least-squares learning, and that it is always the low-inflation equilibrium with intuitive comparative statics properties that is the learnable equilibrium. Hence, this paper provides a basic theoretical justification for focusing on the low-inflation equilibrium. Earlier contributions, in which the high- inflation equilibrium was ignored, mainly because of its unpleasant characteristics, are not theoretically satisfactory.

Suggested Citation

  • Anssi Rantala, 2004. "Adaptive learning and multiple equilibria in a natural rate monetary model with unemployment persistence," GE, Growth, Math methods 0404005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpge:0404005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Lockwood, Ben, 1997. "State-Contingent Inflation Contracts and Unemployment Persistence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 286-299, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    adaptive learning; monetary policy; multiple equilibria; persistence;

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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