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Eductive stability in real business cycle models

  • George W. Evans

    (University of Oregon [Eugene], University of St Andrews [Fife, Scotland, UK])

  • Roger Guesnerie

    (CDF - Collège de France - Collège de France, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC), PSE - Paris School of Economics)

  • Bruce Mcgough

    (OSU - Oregon State University)

We re-examine issues of coordination in the standard RBC model. Can the unique rational expectations equilibrium be “educed” by rational agents who contemplate the possibility of small deviations from equilibrium? Surprisingly, we find that coordination along this line cannot be expected. Rational agents anticipating small but possibly persistent deviations have to face the existence of retroactions that necessarily invalidate any initial tentative “common knowledge” of the future. This "impossibility" theorem for eductive learning is not fully overcome when adaptive learning is incorporated into the framework.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series PSE Working Papers with number halshs-00565011.

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Date of creation: Dec 2010
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Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-00565011
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  1. Bray, Margaret M & Savin, Nathan E, 1986. "Rational Expectations Equilibria, Learning, and Model Specification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1129-60, September.
  2. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  3. Evans, George W. & Guesnerie, Roger, 2005. "Coordination on saddle-path solutions: the eductive viewpoint--linear multivariate models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 202-229, October.
  4. Stéphane Gauthier & Roger Guesnerie, 2004. "Comparing expectational stability criteria in dynamical models: a preparatory overview," DELTA Working Papers 2004-09, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
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  13. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 14181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Desgranges, Gabriel & Ghosal, Sayantan, 2010. "P-Stable Equilibrium : Definition and Some Properties," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 952, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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  18. Akihiko Matsui & Daisuke Oyama, 2002. "Rationalizable Foresight Dynamics: Evolution and Rationalizability," Vienna Economics Papers 0302, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
  19. Evans George W. & Guesnerie Roger, 1993. "Rationalizability, Strong Rationality, and Expectational Stability," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 632-646, October.
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