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Eductive Stability in Real Business Cycle Models

  • George W. Evans

    ()

    (University of Oregon Economics Department and University of St. Andrews)

  • Roger Guesnerie

    ()

    (Paris School of Economics and Collège de France)

  • Bruce McGough

    ()

    (Oregon State University)

We reexamine issues of coordination in the standard RBC model. Is the unique rational expectations equilibrium attainable by rational agents who contemplate the possibility of small deviations from equilibrium? Surprisingly, we find that coordination cannot be expected. Even with strong common knowledge assumptions, rational agents anticipating small but persistent deviations are led to take actions that eventually contradict the common knowledge assumption. This “impossibility†theorem for eductive learning is not fully overcome when adaptive learning is incorporated into the framework.

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Paper provided by University of Oregon Economics Department in its series University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers with number 2010-16.

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Length: 33
Date of creation: 13 Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2010-16
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  1. Benhabib, J. & Farmer, R.E.A, 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Papers 165, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
  2. Honkapohja, S. & Evans, G.W., 2000. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 481, Department of Economics.
  3. Roger Guesnerie & Pedro Jara-Moroni, 2011. "Expectational coordination in simple economic contexts," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 205-246, June.
  4. Hommes, Cars & Wagener, Florian, 2010. "Does eductive stability imply evolutionary stability?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 25-39, July.
  5. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2011. "Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2844-72, October.
  6. Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695, March.
  7. Evans George W. & Guesnerie Roger, 1993. "Rationalizability, Strong Rationality, and Expectational Stability," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 632-646, October.
  8. Matsui, Akihiko & Oyama, Daisuke, 2006. "Rationalizable foresight dynamics," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-322, August.
  9. Brock, W.A., 1995. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  10. Guesnerie, R., 1999. "Anchoring Economic Predictions in Common Knowledge," DELTA Working Papers 1999-06, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  11. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  12. Bray, Margaret M & Savin, Nathan E, 1986. "Rational Expectations Equilibria, Learning, and Model Specification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1129-60, September.
  13. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
  14. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January.
  15. Howitt, Peter, 1992. "Interest Rate Control and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 776-800, August.
  16. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  17. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Learning and Macroeconomics," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2008-3, University of Oregon Economics Department.
  18. Stéphane Gauthier & Roger Guesnerie, 2005. "Comparing Expectational Stability Criteria in Dynamic Models: A Preparatory Overview," Post-Print hal-00731535, HAL.
  19. Desgranges, Gabriel & Ghosal, Sayantan, 2010. "P-Stable Equilibrium : Definition and Some Properties," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 952, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  20. Pearce, David G, 1984. "Rationalizable Strategic Behavior and the Problem of Perfection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 1029-50, July.
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  22. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
  23. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  24. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  25. Evans, George W. & Guesnerie, Roger, 2005. "Coordination on saddle-path solutions: the eductive viewpoint--linear multivariate models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 202-229, October.
  26. John Duffy & Te Bao, 2013. "Adaptive vs. Eductive Learning: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 518, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
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