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Exchange Rate Monitoring Bands: Theory and Policy

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  • Corrado, Luisa
  • Miller, Marcus
  • Zhang, Lei

Abstract

Recent empirical research by Mark Taylor and co-authors has found evidence of hybrid dynamics for real exchange rates. While there is a random walk near equilibrium, for real exchange rates some distance from equilibrium there is mean-reversion which increases with the degree of misalignment. An interesting question is whether this non-linear mean-reversion might be policy-induced. John Williamson (1998), for example, has proposed a ‘monitoring band’ in which there is no intervention near equilibrium but there is substantial intervention triggered by exchange rate deviations outside a preset band. In this Paper we develop a theoretical model of such a monitoring band to see whether it can generate patterns of non-linear mean-reversion akin to those reported in empirical research.

Suggested Citation

  • Corrado, Luisa & Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2002. "Exchange Rate Monitoring Bands: Theory and Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3337, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3337
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    1. Williamson, John, 1998. "Crawling Bands or Monitoring Bands: How to Manage Exchange Rates in a World of Capital Mobility," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 59-79, October.
    2. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-597, June.
    3. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
    4. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521466004, April.
    5. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "Target zones and interest rate variability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 27-54, August.
    6. Miller, Marcus & Weller, Paul, 1991. "Exchange Rate Bands with Price Inertia," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1380-1399, November.
    7. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    8. Krager, Horst & Kugler, Peter, 1993. "Non-linearities in foreign exchange markets: a different perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 195-208, April.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1986. "Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 24-38, Supplemen.
    10. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-1042, November.
    11. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
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    14. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712.
    15. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845.
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    17. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-180.
    18. Lindbecg, H. Soderlind, P., 1992. "Target Zone Models and the Intervention Policy; The Swedish Case," Papers 496, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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    24. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
    25. Andrés VELASCO, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Policies For Developing Countries: What Have We Learned? What Do We Still Not Know?," G-24 Discussion Papers 5, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luisa Corrado & Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2007. "Bulls, bears and excess volatility: can currency intervention help?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 261-272.
    2. G. Dufrenot & E. Grimaud & E. Latil & V. Mignon, 2003. "Real exchange rate misalignment in Hungary: a fractionally integrated threshold model," THEMA Working Papers 2003-07, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    3. Gilles DUFRENOT & Elisabeth GRIMAUD & Eug=E9nie LATIL & Val=E9rie MIGNON, 2003. "Real exhange rate misalignment in Hungary: a fractionally integrated=20 threshold model," Econometrics 0309001, EconWPA.
    4. Garcia Rocabado, Daniel, 2010. "The road to monetary union in Latin America: An EMS-type fixed exchange rate system as an intermediate step," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 85, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
    5. repec:wsi:rpbfmp:v:08:y:2005:i:03:n:s021909150500049x is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monitoring band; near random walk dynamics; non-linear mean-reversion;

    JEL classification:

    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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