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Exchange Rate Monitoring Bands: Theory and Policy

  • Corrado, Luisa
  • Miller, Marcus
  • Zhang, Lei

Recent empirical research by Mark Taylor and co-authors has found evidence of hybrid dynamics for real exchange rates. While there is a random walk near equilibrium, for real exchange rates some distance from equilibrium there is mean-reversion which increases with the degree of misalignment. An interesting question is whether this non-linear mean-reversion might be policy-induced. John Williamson (1998), for example, has proposed a ‘monitoring band’ in which there is no intervention near equilibrium but there is substantial intervention triggered by exchange rate deviations outside a preset band. In this Paper we develop a theoretical model of such a monitoring band to see whether it can generate patterns of non-linear mean-reversion akin to those reported in empirical research.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3337.

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Date of creation: Apr 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3337
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  1. Morris, S & Song Shin, H, 1996. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," Economics Papers 126, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  2. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521466004.
  3. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 0088, European Central Bank.
  4. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
  5. Krager, Horst & Kugler, Peter, 1993. "Non-linearities in foreign exchange markets: a different perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 195-208, April.
  6. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  7. Williamson, John, 1998. "Crawling Bands or Monitoring Bands: How to Manage Exchange Rates in a World of Capital Mobility," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 59-79, October.
  8. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1989. "Target Zones and Interest Rate Variability," NBER Working Papers 3218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Andrés VELASCO, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Policies For Developing Countries: What Have We Learned? What Do We Still Not Know?," G-24 Discussion Papers 5, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  10. Miller M. & Weller, P., 1990. "Exchange Rate Bands With Price Inertia," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 337, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  11. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
  12. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
  13. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-42, November.
  14. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521460477.
  15. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1986. "Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 24-38, Supplemen.
  16. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  18. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo, 1990. "Target Zones and Realignments," CEPR Discussion Papers 398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
  20. repec:oup:restud:v:60:y:1993:i:3:p:689-712 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Hsieh, David A., 1992. "A nonlinear stochastic rational expectations model of exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 235-250, June.
  22. Lindbecg, H. Soderlind, P., 1992. "Target Zone Models and the Intervention Policy; The Swedish Case," Papers 496, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  23. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-214, December.
  24. repec:oup:qjecon:v:106:y:1991:i:3:p:669-82 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
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