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Exchange Monitoring Bands: Theory and Policy

  • Luisa Corrado


    (University of Rome II - Faculty of Economics)

  • Marcus H. Miller


    (University of Warwick - Department of Economics)

  • Lei Zhang


    (University of Warwick - Department of Economics)

Recent empirical research by Mark Taylor and co-authors has found evidence of hybrid dynamics for the real exchange rate. While there is a random walk near equilibrium, for real exchange rates some distance from equilibrium there is mean-reversion which increases with the degree of misalignment. An interesting question is whether this nonlinear mean-reversion is policy-induced. John Williamson (1998), for example, has proposed a "monitoring band" in which there is no intervention near equilibrium but there is substantial intervention triggered by exchange rate deviations outside a preset band. In this paper we develop a theoretical model for a stylised monitoring band to see whether it can generate patterns of nonlinear mean-reversion akin to those reported in empirical research

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Paper provided by Tor Vergata University, CEIS in its series CEIS Research Paper with number 8.

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Date of creation: 08 Apr 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:8
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  1. John Williamson, 1999. "Crawling Bands or Monitoring Bands: How to Manage Exchange Rates in a World of Capital Mobility," Policy Briefs PB99-03, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  2. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-42, November.
  3. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  4. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
  5. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1986. "Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 24-38, Supplemen.
  7. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Miller, Marcus & Weller, Paul, 1991. "Exchange Rate Bands with Price Inertia," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1380-99, November.
  9. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
  10. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521460477.
  11. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712.
  12. Morris, S & Song Shin, H, 1996. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," Economics Papers 126, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  13. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-214, December.
  14. Krager, Horst & Kugler, Peter, 1993. "Non-linearities in foreign exchange markets: a different perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 195-208, April.
  15. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2002. "Bubbles and crashes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24905, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  16. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo, 1990. "Target Zones and Realignments," CEPR Discussion Papers 398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
  18. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
  19. Andrés VELASCO, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Policies For Developing Countries: What Have We Learned? What Do We Still Not Know?," G-24 Discussion Papers 5, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  20. Lindbecg, H. Soderlind, P., 1992. "Target Zone Models and the Intervention Policy; The Swedish Case," Papers 496, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  21. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521466004.
  22. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
  23. Hsieh, David A., 1992. "A nonlinear stochastic rational expectations model of exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 235-250, June.
  24. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
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