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A micro-based model for world oil market

Author

Listed:
  • Espinasa, Ramon
  • ter Horst, Enrique
  • Reyes, Sergio Guerra
  • Manzano, Osmel
  • Molina, German
  • Rigobon, Roberto

Abstract

In this paper, we study the supply–demand drivers of the price of oil over the last two decades. We address the problem of endogeneity using a novel SVAR approach, which allows us to incorporate technological restrictions that occur at the micro level in the production of crude oil to solve the identification problem in a reduced-form regression analysis that seeks to disentangle the drivers of oil prices. We explore the relationships between oil prices, rig counts, oil production and an index of world economic activity, and provide results for a heterogeneous set of countries. We find that when oil prices peaked in mid-2008—reaching almost US$150 compared to US$14 in 1998, a large proportion of the price move can be explained through a purely demand and supply factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Espinasa, Ramon & ter Horst, Enrique & Reyes, Sergio Guerra & Manzano, Osmel & Molina, German & Rigobon, Roberto, 2017. "A micro-based model for world oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 431-449.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:431-449
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.06.019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
    2. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
    3. Ringlund, Guro Bornes & Rosendahl, Knut Einar & Skjerpen, Terje, 2008. "Does oilrig activity react to oil price changes An empirical investigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 371-396, March.
    4. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
    5. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
    6. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
    7. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
    8. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    9. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    10. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 78-121, March.
    11. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2014. "Oil price shocks and agricultural commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 22-35.
    12. Chen, Hao & Liao, Hua & Tang, Bao-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "Impacts of OPEC's political risk on the international crude oil prices: An empirical analysis based on the SVAR models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 42-49.
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    1. repec:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:14:p:2649-:d:247267 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; Rigs; Oil production; SVAR;

    JEL classification:

    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • D00 - Microeconomics - - General - - - General
    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General

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