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Cursed Resources? Political Conditions and Oil Market Outcomes

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  • Gilbert E. Metcalf and Catherine Wolfram

Abstract

We analyze how a country's political institutions affect oil production within its borders. We find a pronounced negative relationship between political openness and volatility in oil production, with democratic regimes exhibiting less volatility than more autocratic regimes. This relationship holds across a number of robustness checks including using different measures of political conditions, instrumenting for political conditions and using several measures of production volatility. Political openness also affects other oil market outcomes, including total production as a share of reserves. Our findings have implications both for interpreting the role of institutions in explaining differences in macroeconomic development and for understanding world oil markets.

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  • Gilbert E. Metcalf and Catherine Wolfram, 2015. "Cursed Resources? Political Conditions and Oil Market Outcomes," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej36-3-metcal
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    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
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    5. Robert T. Deacon & Henning Bohn, 2000. "Ownership Risk, Investment, and the Use of Natural Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 526-549, June.
    6. Albouy, David, 2006. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Investigation of the Settler Mortality Data," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt8kt576x8, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    7. Michael Alexeev & Robert Conrad, 2009. "The Elusive Curse of Oil," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 586-598, August.
    8. Eichengreen, Barry & Gullapalli, Rachita & Panizza, Ugo, 2011. "Capital account liberalization, financial development and industry growth: A synthetic view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1090-1106, October.
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    1. repec:eee:eneeco:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Frey, Daniel & Frey, Miriam & Wieslhuber, Carmen, 2013. "Do natural resources define convergence clubs? Empirical evidence from the Kazakh regions," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 404-414.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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