Determinants of Expropriation in the Oil Sector: A Theory and Evidence from Panel Data
In this paper we study nationalizations in the oil industry around the world in 1960-2002. We show, both theoretically and empirically, that governments are more likely to nationalize when oil prices are high and when political institutions are weak. We consider a simple dynamic model of the interaction between a government and a foreign oil company. The government cannot commit to abstain from expropriation and the company cannot commit to pay high taxes. Even though nationalization is ine? cient it does occur in equilibrium when oil prices are high. The model?s predictions are consistent with the panel analysis of a comprehensive dataset on nationalizations in the oil industry since 1960. Nationalization is more likely to happen when oil prices are high and the quality of institutions is low even when controlling for country fixed effects.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 117418 Russia, Moscow, Nakhimovsky pr., 47, office 720|
Phone: +7 (495) 105 50 02
Fax: +7 (495) 105 50 03
Web page: http://www.cefir.ru
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bohn, Henning & Deacon, Robert, 1997.
"Ownership Risk, Investment, and the Use of Natural Resources,"
dp-97-20, Resources For the Future.
- Robert T. Deacon & Henning Bohn, 2000. "Ownership Risk, Investment, and the Use of Natural Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 526-549, June.
- George Baker & Robert Gibbons & Kevin J. Murphy, 1994. "Subjective Performance Measures in Optimal Incentive Contracts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(4), pages 1125-1156.
- Jonathan Levin, 2003.
"Relational Incentive Contracts,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 835-857, June.
- Thomas, Jonathan & Worrall, Tim, 1990.
"Foreign direct investment and the risk of expropriation,"
Kiel Working Papers
411, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Jonathan Thomas & Tim Worrall, 1994. "Foreign Direct Investment and the Risk of Expropriation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 81-108.
- Thomas, Jonathan P. & Worrall, Tim, 1990. "Foreign direct investment and the risk of expropriation," Kiel Working Papers 411, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Thomas, J.P. & Worrall, T., 1991. "Foreign direct investment and the risk of expropriation," Discussion Paper 1991-26, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Thomas, J. & Worral, T., 1991. "Foreign Direcyt Investment and the Risk of Expropriation," Papers 9126, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Thomas, J. & Worrall, T., 1990. "Foreign Direct Investment And The Risk Of Expropriation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 342, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1998.
"The long-run evolution of energy prices,"
WP 4044-98., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Robinson, James A, 1999.
"A Theory of Political Transitions,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- George Baker & Robert Gibbons & Kevin J. Murphy, 2002. "Relational Contracts and the Theory of the Firm," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(1), pages 39-84.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silane & Andrei Shleifer, 2004.
"Do Institutions Cause Growth?,"
NBER Working Papers
10568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- W. J. Henisz, 2000. "The Institutional Environment for Economic Growth," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, 03.
- Kobrin, Stephen J., 1980. "Foreign enterprise and forced divestment in LDCs," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 65-88, December.
- Moran, Theodore H., 1973. "Transnational Strategies of Protection and Defense by Multinational Corporations: Spreading the Risk and Raising the Cost for Nationalization in Natural Resources," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(02), pages 273-287, March.
- Stephen J. Kobrin, 1985. "Diffusion as an Explanation of Oil Nationalization," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 29(1), pages 3-32, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julia Babich)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.