IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rbs/ijbrss/v4y2015i3p42-53.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Causal Relationship between Construction Production and GDP in Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Hakkı Kutay Bolkol

    (Research Assistant, Istanbul 29 Mayıs University)

Abstract

This study empirically investigates the causal relationship between construction production and GDP for Turkey during 2005Q1-2013Q4 period. Because it is found that, there is no cointegration which means there is no long run relationship between variables, VAR Granger Causality Method is used to test the causality in short run. The findings reveal that, the causality runs from GDP to Building Production and Building Production to Non-Building Production (i.e. bidirectional relationship). Findings of this paper suggest that, because there is no long run relationship between Construction Production (Building and Non-Building) and GDP and also in short run the causality runs from GDP to Construction Production, the growth strategy based on mainly Construction Sector growth is not a good idea for Turkey. Key Words:Construction Sector, Construction Production, Economic Growth, Turkey, VAR, Granger

Suggested Citation

  • Hakkı Kutay Bolkol, 2015. "Causal Relationship between Construction Production and GDP in Turkey," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 4(3), pages 42-53, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:rbs:ijbrss:v:4:y:2015:i:3:p:42-53
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ssbfnet.com/ojs/index.php/ijrbs/article/view/136/139
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.ssbfnet.com/ojs/index.php/ijrbs/article/view/136
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris & Joon Y. Park, 1988. "Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Maintained Trend," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 880, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    4. Ozkan, Filiz & Ozkan, Omer & Gunduz, Murat, 2012. "Causal relationship between construction investment policy and economic growth in Turkey," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 362-370.
    5. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 6, pages 139-164 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Chang, Tsangyao & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2004. "A note on testing the causal link between construction activity and economic growth in Taiwan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 591-598, June.
    7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    9. Ivanov Ventzislav & Kilian Lutz, 2005. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36, March.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rbs:ijbrss:v:4:y:2015:i:3:p:42-53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Umit Hacioglu). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ssbffea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.