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Causal relationship between construction flows and GDP: evidence from Hong Kong


  • Raymond Tse
  • Sivaguru Ganesan


Granger causality methodology is used to investigate lead-lag relationships between construction activity and aggregate economy. Using data from Hong Kong, the results of this paper suggest strongly that the GDP tends to lead the construction flow not vice versa. Our finding is contrary to the view that construction is more volatile than the GDP. However, our results show that the construction volatility after 1990 is smaller than that in the period 1983-1989, a result that is particularly important for policymakers in that it is the macroeconomic policy of government that affects output, and influences the construction activity, and not vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Raymond Tse & Sivaguru Ganesan, 1997. "Causal relationship between construction flows and GDP: evidence from Hong Kong," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 371-376.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:15:y:1997:i:4:p:371-376
    DOI: 10.1080/014461997372926

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Chang, Tsangyao & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2004. "A note on testing the causal link between construction activity and economic growth in Taiwan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 591-598, June.
    3. Eddie Chi-Man Hui & Tony K.K. Lo & Jia Chen & Ziyou Wang, 2012. "Housing and consumer markets in urban China," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 117-131, December.
    4. Owolabi A. Usman & Adegbite Tajudeen Adejare, 2014. "Impact of Monetary Policy on Industrial Growth in Nigeria," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(1), pages 18-31, January.
    5. Hakkı Kutay Bolkol, 2015. "Causal Relationship between Construction Production and GDP in Turkey," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 4(3), pages 42-53, July.
    6. Bryane Michael, 2018. "What does Brunei teach us about using Human Development Index rankings as a policy tool?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 36(S1), pages 414-431, March.
    7. Erol, Isil & Unal, Umut, 2015. "Role of Construction Sector in Economic Growth: New Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 68263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Charles K. Leung & Kelvin S. Wong, 2004. "The Construction and Related Industries in a Changing Socio-Economic Environment: The Case of Hong Kong," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 7(1), pages 139-170.
    9. Raymond Tse & C. W. Ho & S. Ganesan, 1999. "Matching housing supply and demand: an empirical study of Hong Kong's market," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 625-633.
    10. Raymond Y.C. Tse & John Raftery, 2001. "The effects of money supply on construction flows," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 9-17, January.
    11. Peter Uchenna Okoye & Chinwendu Christopher Mbakwe & Evelyn Ndifreke Igbo, 2018. "Modeling the Construction Sector and Oil Prices toward the Growth of the Nigerian Economy: An Econometric Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, March.
    12. Chan Swee Lean, 2001. "Empirical tests to discern linkages between construction and other economic sectors in Singapore," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 355-363.
    13. Le Ma & Chunlu Liu, 2014. "Did the late-2000s financial crisis influence construction labour productivity?," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(10), pages 1030-1047, October.
    14. (No last name available), Himanshu, 2013. "Poverty and Food Security in India," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 369, Asian Development Bank.
    15. Debuque-Gonzales, Margarita, 2013. "Empirical Determinants and Patterns of Research and Development Investment in Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 364, Asian Development Bank.

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