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Causal relationship between construction flows and GDP: evidence from Hong Kong


  • Raymond Tse
  • Sivaguru Ganesan


Granger causality methodology is used to investigate lead-lag relationships between construction activity and aggregate economy. Using data from Hong Kong, the results of this paper suggest strongly that the GDP tends to lead the construction flow not vice versa. Our finding is contrary to the view that construction is more volatile than the GDP. However, our results show that the construction volatility after 1990 is smaller than that in the period 1983-1989, a result that is particularly important for policymakers in that it is the macroeconomic policy of government that affects output, and influences the construction activity, and not vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Raymond Tse & Sivaguru Ganesan, 1997. "Causal relationship between construction flows and GDP: evidence from Hong Kong," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 371-376.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:15:y:1997:i:4:p:371-376 DOI: 10.1080/014461997372926

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    2. Ng, Serena, 1995. "Testing for Homogeneity in Demand Systems When the Regressors Are Nonstationary," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 147-163, April-Jun.
    3. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-1167, July.
    4. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Tsangyao & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2004. "A note on testing the causal link between construction activity and economic growth in Taiwan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 591-598, June.
    2. Charles K. Leung & Kelvin S. Wong, 2004. "The Construction and Related Industries in a Changing Socio-Economic Environment: The Case of Hong Kong," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 7(1), pages 139-170.
    3. Chan Swee Lean, 2001. "Empirical tests to discern linkages between construction and other economic sectors in Singapore," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 355-363.

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    Unit Root Test; Causality; Hong Kong;


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