IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/eeupol/v12y2011i2p169-191.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Public opinion and policy output in the European Union: A lost relationship

Author

Listed:
  • Dimiter Toshkov

    (Leiden University, the Netherlands, dtoshkov@fsw.leidenuniv.nl)

Abstract

The European Union (EU) is assumed to suffer from a democratic deficit. It is often posited that in the EU there is only a weak and indirect connection between public preferences and policy change. This article investigates empirically whether any relationship exists between public support for European integration and EU policy output (1973—2008). Using a new indicator of policy output — the volume of important legislation produced in a semester — I discover a surprising relationship between public support and legislative production. Employing vector autoregression (VAR), I demonstrate that public EU support Granger-causes legislative output but not vice versa, and that the relationship is strong up to the middle of the 1990s but non-existent afterwards. The effect is robust to the inclusion of indicators of the state of the economy and government preferences. In addition, I discover that the average level of EU support in the Council of Ministers follows unemployment levels with a four-year delay.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimiter Toshkov, 2011. "Public opinion and policy output in the European Union: A lost relationship," European Union Politics, , vol. 12(2), pages 169-191, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:eeupol:v:12:y:2011:i:2:p:169-191
    DOI: 10.1177/1465116510395043
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1465116510395043
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1465116510395043?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andreas Follesdal & Simon Hix, 2006. "Why There is a Democratic Deficit in the EU: A Response to Majone and Moravcsik," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44, pages 533-562, September.
    2. Binder, Sarah A., 1999. "The Dynamics of Legislative Gridlock, 1947–96," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 93(3), pages 519-533, September.
    3. Jonathan Golub & Bernard Steunenberg, 2007. "How Time Affects EU Decision-Making," European Union Politics, , vol. 8(4), pages 555-566, December.
    4. Andreas Warntjen, 2007. "Steering the Union. The Impact of the EU Presidency on Legislative Activity in the Council," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(5), pages 1135-1157, December.
    5. Alberto Alesina & Ignazio Angeloni & Ludger Schuknecht, 2005. "What does the European Union do?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 275-319, June.
    6. Hooghe, Liesbet & Marks, Gary, 2009. "A Postfunctionalist Theory of European Integration: From Permissive Consensus to Constraining Dissensus," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 1-23, January.
    7. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    8. Hermann Schmitt & Jacques Thomassen, 2000. "Dynamic Representation: The Case of European Integration," MZES Working Papers 21, MZES.
    9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    10. Andreas Follesdal & Simon Hix, 2006. "Why There is a Democratic Deficit in the EU: A Response to Majone and Moravcsik," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 533-562, September.
    11. Eichenberg, Richard C. & Dalton, Russell J., 1993. "Europeans and the European Community: the dynamics of public support for European integration," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(4), pages 507-534, October.
    12. Pfaff, Bernhard, 2008. "VAR, SVAR and SVEC Models: Implementation Within R Package vars," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i04).
    13. Golub, Jonathan, 1999. "In the Shadow of the Vote? Decision Making in the European Community," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 733-764, October.
    14. Anderson, Christopher J. & Reichert, M. Shawn, 1995. "Economic Benefits and Support for Membership in the E.U.: A Cross-National Analysis," Journal of Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 231-249, September.
    15. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    16. Andrew Moravcsik, 2002. "Reassessing Legitimacy in the European Union," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 603-624, November.
    17. Andreas Warntjen, 2007. "Steering the Union. The Impact of the EU Presidency on Legislative Activity in the Council," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45, pages 1135-1157, December.
    18. Coleman, John J., 1999. "Unified Government, Divided Government, and Party Responsiveness," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 93(4), pages 821-835, December.
    19. Brandt, Patrick T. & Freeman, John R., 2009. "Modeling Macro-Political Dynamics," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 113-142, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chortareas, Georgios & Logothetis, Vassilis & Papandreou, Andreas, 2018. "Public Opinion, Elections, and Environmental Fiscal Policy," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/9, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    2. Sabine Saurugger & Fabien Terpan, 2016. "Do crises lead to policy change? The multiple streams framework and the European Union’s economic governance instruments," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 49(1), pages 35-53, March.
    3. Christopher Wratil, 2015. "Democratic Responsiveness in the European Union: the Case of the Council," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 94, European Institute, LSE.
    4. de Wilde, Pieter & Rauh, Christian, 2019. "Going full circle: the need for procedural perspectives on EU responsiveness," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 26(11), pages 1737-1748.
    5. Guri Rosén, 2019. "Proving Their Worth? The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and the Members of the European Parliament," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 7(3), pages 266-278.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jørgen Bølstad, 2015. "Dynamics of European integration: Public opinion in the core and periphery," European Union Politics, , vol. 16(1), pages 23-44, March.
    2. Christopher J Williams & Shaun Bevan, 2019. "The effect of public attitudes toward the European Union on European Commission policy activity," European Union Politics, , vol. 20(4), pages 608-628, December.
    3. Arnold, Christine, Eliyahu V. Sapir and Galina Zapryanova, 2012. "Trust in the institutions of the European Union: A cross-country examination," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 16, February.
    4. Henrik Scheller & Annegret Eppler, 2014. "European Disintegration – non-existing Phenomenon or a Blind Spot of European Integration Research? Preliminary Thoughts for a Research Agenda," Working Papers of the Vienna Institute for European integration research (EIF) 2, Institute for European integration research (EIF).
    5. Caroline Mcevoy, 2016. "The Role of Political Efficacy on Public Opinion in the European Union," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(5), pages 1159-1174, September.
    6. Thomas König & Bernd Luig, 2014. "Ministerial gatekeeping and parliamentary involvement in the implementation process of EU directives," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 501-519, September.
    7. Federica Genovese & Gerald Schneider, 2020. "Smoke with fire: Financial crises and the demand for parliamentary oversight in the European Union," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 633-665, July.
    8. Sofia Vasilopoulou & Katjana Gattermann, 2021. "Does Politicization Matter for EU Representation? A Comparison of Four European Parliament Elections," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 661-678, May.
    9. Dimiter Doychinov Toshkov, 2014. "The dynamic relationship between asylum applications and recognition rates in Europe (1987–2010)," European Union Politics, , vol. 15(2), pages 192-214, June.
    10. Milica Pejovic, 2022. "Online EU Contestation in Times of Crisis: Towards a European Digital Demos?," Societies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, February.
    11. Julian Aichholzer & Sylvia Kritzinger & Carolina Plescia, 2021. "National identity profiles and support for the European Union," European Union Politics, , vol. 22(2), pages 293-315, June.
    12. Richard Hyman & Rebecca Gumbrell-McCormick, 2020. "(How) can international trade union organisations be democratic?," Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research, , vol. 26(3), pages 253-272, August.
    13. Rivera, Nilza & Guzmán, Juan Ignacio & Jara, José Joaquín & Lagos, Gustavo, 2021. "Evaluation of econometric models of secondary refined copper supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Katjana Gattermann & Claes H De Vreese, 2017. "The role of candidate evaluations in the 2014 European Parliament elections: Towards the personalization of voting behaviour?," European Union Politics, , vol. 18(3), pages 447-468, September.
    15. Christopher J Williams, 2016. "Issuing reasoned opinions: The effect of public attitudes towards the European Union on the usage of the 'Early Warning System'," European Union Politics, , vol. 17(3), pages 504-521, September.
    16. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    17. Petia Kostadinova, 2015. "Improving the Transparency and Accountability of EU Institutions: The Impact of the Office of the European Ombudsman," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(5), pages 1077-1093, September.
    18. Hongbo Liu & Shuanglu Liang, 2019. "The Nexus between Energy Consumption, Biodiversity, and Economic Growth in Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC): Evidence from Cointegration and Granger Causality Tests," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-15, September.
    19. Scharpf, Fritz W., 2014. "No exit from the euro-rescuing trap?," MPIfG Discussion Paper 14/4, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    20. Erik Jones, 2009. "Output Legitimacy and the Global Financial Crisis: Perceptions Matter," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 1085-1105, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:eeupol:v:12:y:2011:i:2:p:169-191. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.